MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bedad0d3689e3f09a44a3367f9ecf3d7cb438345a34d5f642157c4003ebac5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Toronto Blue Jays, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0165…8235backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 5,785$2,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,502.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 3,720$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.6 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 3,613$1,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,553.22 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 1,100$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 1,004$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.96 | 493 | 58.8%290 W · 203 L | +30.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 991.25$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.24 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 970.02$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.41 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 689.42$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.35 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2445…ff62backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 666.67$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.67 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 642.87$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.66 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…ebf6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 350.78$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.77 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 331.23$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 328.53$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.8 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 281.36$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.17 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 247.99$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Minnesota Twins | 66c | 218.33$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.08 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc4…5a94backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 187.42$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 141$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 127.23$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Minnesota Twins | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 117.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 116$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 104.6$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Minnesota Twins | 69c | 96.29$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 75.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 69.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 67.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 61.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 59.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 46.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 45.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 44.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ca…f762backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 34.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 32.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 26.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Minnesota Twins | 69c | 25.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 24.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Minnesota Twins | 69c | 24.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 22.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc51e…bbafbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Minnesota Twins | 69c | 19.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 19.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed Minnesota Twins | 69c | 16.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 150 | 37.3%56 W · 94 L | -15.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.