Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c295c90bf65719358ca7776687700d035644f73e22baafcc505946869a8879f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 0c | 15,170$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 10,523$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…8c2bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,592$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 0c | 4,621$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…5b55backed Yes | 0c | 3,612$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,171$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 1,057$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7e…3de7backed Yes | 2c | 1,040$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 47c | 1,038$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.36 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 49c | 874.05$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.36 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed No | 53c | 675.17$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.49 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 51c | 638.84$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.33 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2c…0750backed Yes | 6c | 570.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 49c | 515.34$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.96 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 31c | 461.96$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.28 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 47c | 461.07$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 47c | 453.26$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 420$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.01 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 7c | 405$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 342.65$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.95 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 51c | 303.83$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.93 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5334…1a3fbacked Yes | 72c | 300$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 45c | 277$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.65 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 39c | 237.89$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.79 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 227$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.6 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 47c | 215.36$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.01 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 47c | 214.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.99 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 192.25$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 36c | 176.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…7aecbacked Yes | 62c | 173.22$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 172.96$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 6c | 170$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30d…08b7backed Yes | 48c | 164.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 152.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 142.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 62c | 140.93$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc528…73e9backed Yes | 78c | 140.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 61c | 136.51$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 57c | 132$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 132$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 51c | 124.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed Yes | 66c | 120$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…0534backed Yes | 44c | 119.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 12c | 117.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…6718backed Yes | 46c | 111.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 104$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked No | 56c | 102.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 24c | 101.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a19…b2a9backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 35c | 98.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 38c | 96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…eea4backed Yes | 45c | 95.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 54c | 94.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 51c | 91.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 57c | 88.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 29c | 88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…8541backed Yes | 52c | 84.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dfc0backed Yes | 34c | 81.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37d0…cb85backed Yes | 49c | 81.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ea…93a8backed Yes | 48c | 79.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 27c | 78.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 43c | 76.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd651…bff1backed Yes | 73c | 67.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 66.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 58c | 65.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 28c | 63.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…d606backed No | 48c | 63.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 50c | 60.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fd…50afbacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…fd8dbacked Yes | 44c | 59.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 56c | 58.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…8484backed Yes | 32c | 56.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 44c | 54.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 55c | 54.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7596…02a9backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 64c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 36c | 50.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 42c | 49.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 23c | 48.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 52c | 46.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f73…7d9abacked Yes | 67c | 44.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbb…bb99backed Yes | 45c | 44.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 27c | 41.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 51c | 41.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 50c | 40.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 50c | 40.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0503…a312backed Yes | 46c | 40.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.