Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab53468b2664a66f58428381fb68be6b1d231bef662aee780dd0e111f7db81b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 0c | 26,040$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c9…9626backed No | 1c | 25,304$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 28c | 1,640$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.16 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 45c | 1,553$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.58 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed No | 18c | 1,460$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.7 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 70c | 1,364$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.8 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5b…8007backed No | 16c | 1,230$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 1,169$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 49c | 1,071$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.19 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…62a0backed Yes | 57c | 958.64$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 38c | 914.99$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.68 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 10c | 500.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 16c | 461.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.36 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 59c | 441.64$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.88 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…5eefbacked Yes | 62c | 400$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.14 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 73c | 400$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 77c | 399.87$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.31 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked Yes | 20c | 384.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.7 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 21c | 328.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.84 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 30c | 324.47$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.47 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 20c | 312.92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.44 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed No | 6c | 303.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 37c | 298.78$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.81 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 17c | 270$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.6 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d42…5bbcbacked No | 78c | 268.86$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 251.14$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30d…08b7backed No | 67c | 240.69$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 236$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 26c | 223.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 221$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 197.37$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.85 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 29c | 196$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.21 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 16c | 192.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.79 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 80c | 187$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.22 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 63c | 180$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.12 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked Yes | 24c | 178.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.79 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Yes | 25c | 175$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.25 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 56c | 174.21$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 161.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 65c | 159.58$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed No | 69c | 154.09$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.71 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 38c | 152.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…ccb4backed No | 66c | 150.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 67c | 149.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 15c | 145.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 144.62$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.12 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 75c | 143.15$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 40c | 141.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 22c | 134.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.91 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 22c | 132.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…6c35backed No | 77c | 130.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 44c | 122.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…a7fdbacked Yes | 18c | 122.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.55 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…41f8backed Yes | 44c | 119.94$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.29 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeffb…f5e4backed Yes | 56c | 108.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 106.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde0d…387cbacked No | 71c | 106.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 76c | 104$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…8541backed Yes | 26c | 100.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2c…0750backed Yes | 34c | 100.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 26c | 95.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…6deabacked Yes | 16c | 93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc20…5374backed Yes | 29c | 84.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +148.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…0e0bbacked Yes | 16c | 81.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 79c | 77.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 28c | 77.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…a94cbacked Yes | 27c | 77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84aa…e3f4backed No | 76c | 72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc3…3af9backed No | 66c | 71.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…d481backed Yes | 38c | 65.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 63c | 63.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 80c | 61.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 57c | 61.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ca…67d7backed Yes | 45c | 60.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 62c | 59.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 47c | 55.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 20c | 54.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…50c1backed Yes | 28c | 53.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 76c | 52.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 75c | 46.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 48c | 45.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 26c | 43.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 65c | 43.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…b7adbacked Yes | 31c | 43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 69c | 41.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 62c | 40.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97b…c795backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…9211backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 75c | 38.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…9c0ebacked No | 65c | 35.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd293…73f6backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 52c | 34.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.