Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eff042f3fff46ff344f3dac8869276011da8b43eea96acfffb20f8b971e3ee8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 12,103$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.79 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 24c | 925.98$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.1 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 78c | 844.43$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.87 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 27c | 649.96$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.99 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 13c | 520.26$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed No | 78c | 493.67$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.26 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 432.77$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.34 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked No | 63c | 419.23$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.11 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 18c | 416.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 385$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 10c | 382.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 73c | 339.62$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.32 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 22c | 327.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 319$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 24c | 299.07$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 284.06$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 27c | 277$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 231$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 26c | 230.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 230.06$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed Yes | 31c | 223.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 32c | 215.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 21c | 213.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 201.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 187.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 187.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 20c | 182$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 159.73$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 22c | 155.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 13c | 155$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…1d8ebacked Yes | 11c | 138.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 20c | 135$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9933…db7dbacked Yes | 36c | 131.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…0534backed Yes | 34c | 119.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 11c | 112.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 12c | 112$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 18c | 108.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 106$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 24c | 104.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4f…5aa2backed No | 75c | 102$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 16c | 101.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 36c | 100.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…b385backed Yes | 21c | 96.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 79c | 96.21$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 93.72$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 19c | 89.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 33c | 87.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…eea4backed Yes | 18c | 85.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes | 37c | 81.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 70c | 76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 64c | 75.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 27c | 69.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…defabacked Yes | 32c | 66.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 34c | 64.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa837…512fbacked Yes | 22c | 64.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3571…3bfbbacked Yes | 34c | 58.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 21c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 55.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…4bc0backed Yes | 33c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 77c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…eeaebacked Yes | 19c | 51.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 78c | 50.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 67c | 50.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf72f…6a8abacked Yes | 36c | 46.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f73…7d9abacked Yes | 32c | 46.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 77c | 45.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d0…a352backed Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 35.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 67c | 33.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 71c | 33.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 64c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…eae4backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…8541backed Yes | 36c | 30.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 69c | 27.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 73c | 27.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 65c | 24.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 24.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 80c | 22.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7596…02a9backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.