MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d2ec7cf9ce0524694a8cbeae504c376d343e353556781b4850a5a6b377b7f47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 1,990$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.44 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…bafcbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 1,365$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.15 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 76c | 705.82$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.76 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Miami Marlins | 23c | 699.95$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.58 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Miami Marlins | 29c | 680.22$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.26 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 77c | 662.72$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.49 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 77c | 481.47$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.52 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 471.09$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.79 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 386.44$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.46 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 300$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.69 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 265$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.3 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Miami Marlins | 20c | 260.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 250$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 237.9$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.41 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 212.16$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…a7bdbacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 195.8$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.27 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 183.3$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.8 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 118$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 117.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 108.81$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 93.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…1d67backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 89.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2e…d2abbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 88.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Miami Marlins | 35c | 84.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 78.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 65.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 62.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 53.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Miami Marlins | 45c | 53.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 21c | 49.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 48.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 38.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 35.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 456 | 50.4%230 W · 226 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 29.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 28.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 20.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 19.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami MarlinsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.