Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d63f6bcfc20cb33e0b95e80828e933f01037e90bb0e37a2ded2e21ab50801d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Wolverinesof Michigan Wolverines, Connecticut Huskies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Connecticut Huskies | 2c | 1,465$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 54cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Connecticut Huskies | 23c | 403.58$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 147 | 28.6%42 W · 105 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Connecticut Huskies | 12c | 342.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f75…df7fbacked Michigan Wolverines | 65c | 222.84$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…95cabacked Connecticut Huskies | 35c | 217.78$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Connecticut Huskies | 47c | 200.53$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 199.73$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.87 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Connecticut Huskies | 56c | 139.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Michigan Wolverines | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5e…f08abacked Michigan Wolverines | 71c | 117.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Connecticut Huskies | 55c | 89.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4162…0d18backed Connecticut Huskies | 33c | 65.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…20fabacked Michigan Wolverines | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Michigan Wolverines | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Michigan Wolverines | 59c | 29.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 79c | 28.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-4.5)this page
- Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan WolverinesMichigan Wolverines won
- Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 132.5Under won
- Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 135.5Under won
- Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 138.5Under won
- Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 141.5Under won
- Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 144.5Under won
- Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 145.5Under won
- Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 146.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-10.5)Connecticut Huskies won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-5.5)Michigan Wolverines won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-6.5)Connecticut Huskies won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5)Connecticut Huskies won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-8.5)Connecticut Huskies won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5)Connecticut Huskies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.