TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Connecticut Huskiesof Michigan Wolverines, Connecticut Huskies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,303
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,804

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,303 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Michigan Wolverines44c1,593$701 inLost-$70146246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x033d…fd1ebacked Connecticut Huskies56c1,492$836 inWon+$656.52683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick53cpaid+63%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x597e…cd70backed Connecticut Huskies51c1,000$510 inWon+$4902334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Michigan Wolverines49c960.47$467 inLost-$467.257447.3%35 W · 39 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+53.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Michigan Wolverines30c798.33$240 inLost-$239.544146.5%205 W · 236 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Connecticut Huskies46c290.22$133 inWon+$157.6442934.3%147 W · 282 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Connecticut Huskies35c274.57$96 inWon+$178.473933.3%13 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Connecticut Huskies56c247.28$138 inWon+$108.815055.3%83 W · 67 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Michigan Wolverines50c228.74$115 inLost-$114.828754%47 W · 40 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8081…95cabacked Michigan Wolverines42c198.96$84 inLost-$83.870%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Michigan Wolverines49c156.06$76 inLost-$76.1811854.2%64 W · 54 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Connecticut Huskies58c150.71$87 inWon+$63.382181%17 W · 4 L+5.7wins+0.27per pick54cpaid+46.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Michigan Wolverines56c139.33$78 inLost-$77.889153.8%49 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Michigan Wolverines52c89.33$46 inLost-$46.241,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd454…b47fbacked Michigan Wolverines51c70.42$36 inLost-$35.9121850.9%111 W · 107 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Michigan Wolverines54c64.3$35 inLost-$34.721250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4162…0d18backed Connecticut Huskies56c58.37$33 inWon+$25.521163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Michigan Wolverines64c58.05$37 inLost-$37.23,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Michigan Wolverines51c53.57$28 inLost-$27.571,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…7b83backed Connecticut Huskies58c50$29 inWon+$216720.9%14 W · 53 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7810…b011backed Michigan Wolverines44c42.36$19 inLost-$18.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+51.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f02…12f5backed Connecticut Huskies68c35.97$25 inWon+$11.447646.1%35 W · 41 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Connecticut Huskies61c35$21 inWon+$13.652330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-45.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f52…ce1bbacked Michigan Wolverines47c30.67$15 inLost-$14.531369.2%9 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee36…bebebacked Connecticut Huskies58c30$17 inWon+$12.6683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.41per pick42cpaid+116.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Connecticut Huskies61c24$15 inWon+$9.369725.8%25 W · 72 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Connecticut Huskies61c24$15 inWon+$9.363928.2%11 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15b5…ef23backed Michigan Wolverines49c23.17$11 inLost-$11.4220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa404…3ee0backed Connecticut Huskies51c21.12$11 inWon+$10.45714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-71.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x57a3…78d9backed Connecticut Huskies62c16.69$10 inWon+$6.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.