TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Michigan Wolverinesof Michigan Wolverines, Connecticut Huskies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,102
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,135

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,102 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x664a…fc5fbacked Michigan Wolverines69c554.97$383 inWon+$172.38560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Connecticut Huskies24c451.82$108 inLost-$108.3444146.5%205 W · 236 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Connecticut Huskies61c127.52$78 inLost-$78.149153.8%49 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Connecticut Huskies43c111$48 inLost-$47.711,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Michigan Wolverines56c102.23$57 inWon+$44.983,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4162…0d18backed Connecticut Huskies33c48.21$16 inLost-$16.131163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…3d0ebacked Michigan Wolverines68c44.76$30 inWon+$14.444100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x76c0…4731backed Michigan Wolverines44c30$13 inWon+$16.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Connecticut Huskies44c25$11 inLost-$111,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Michigan Wolverines59c24.39$14 inWon+$102181%17 W · 4 L+5.7wins+0.27per pick54cpaid+46.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Michigan Wolverines68c19$13 inWon+$6.0519153.9%103 W · 88 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.