Tennis · resolved market
Taylor Fritz vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d9b10a016f42620a0c45e4507cfa13acdbd252a98ebc7b2bbcaef790bee91cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 4.5of Over 4.5, Under 4.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x559b…4959backed Under 4.5 | 63c | 831.57$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.68 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb010…3c99backed Over 4.5 | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 4.5 | 62c | 214.29$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Under 4.5 | 64c | 178.73$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x527b…31d0backed Over 4.5 | 38c | 168.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf7…294abacked Under 4.5 | 66c | 151.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cb…b294backed Over 4.5 | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb142…c4bdbacked Over 4.5 | 36c | 129.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -5.0wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over 4.5 | 19c | 129.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under 4.5 | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under 4.5 | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2208…53eebacked Over 4.5 | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…24fabacked Over 4.5 | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f55…2181backed Over 4.5 | 38c | 45.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under 4.5 | 51c | 30.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…a83dbacked Over 4.5 | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under 4.5 | 64c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Taylor Fritz vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5this page
- Fritz vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Fritz vs. Zverev: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Fritz vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Fritz vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs ZverevZverev won
- Set 2 Winner: Fritz vs ZverevZverev won
- Set 3 Winner: Fritz vs ZverevZverev won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Zverev (+1.5)Zverev won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-2.5) vs Zverev (+2.5)Zverev won
- Taylor Fritz vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander ZverevAlexander Zverev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.