Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dbcc8fa1851e85200126c7fea86fe942b3a9b41a48e0d02192184b77d10a49d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 1,250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 1c | 942.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 539.28$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 30c | 471.83$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.31 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 22c | 442.72$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.32 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…0018backed Yes | 12c | 390.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.86 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 8c | 371.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.62 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 18c | 357.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 7c | 356.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 295.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 48c | 264.4$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.59 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 18c | 254.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.34 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 253$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 252.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.63 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 203.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.31 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 34c | 203.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.63 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…5c41backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…6cb8backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 62c | 197.46$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.51 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked No | 8c | 197.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 59c | 168.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 12c | 167.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.06 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 13c | 164.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.4 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb762…bbfebacked Yes | 22c | 147.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 59c | 132.81$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 130.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 48c | 123.31$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 19c | 98.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 53c | 97.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 13c | 96.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.64 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 59c | 96.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 91.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.35 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 13c | 90.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.23 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 59c | 86.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 72c | 66.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 55c | 66.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 58c | 65.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 74c | 65.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 61.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 41c | 59.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…8e96backed Yes | 48c | 51.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 44c | 50.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…7b63backed Yes | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…0348backed Yes | 25c | 48.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 70c | 48.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 43.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…042dbacked Yes | 65c | 42.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 74c | 35.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d75…4f96backed Yes | 43c | 34.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 44c | 32.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 70c | 31.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 27.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 49c | 26.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 72c | 26.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…7275backed Yes | 43c | 25.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 49c | 25.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 77c | 17.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.