Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6264da15bed4b080bb4fa7fa3223caba0f2bc0f7df0b447cb7907460b4d04e94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 9c | 899.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 31c | 568.33$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.33 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 473.1$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed No | 74c | 462.21$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.78 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 68c | 451.9$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.47 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 26c | 382.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 50c | 331.53$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.58 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 67c | 223.95$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 217.85$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 28c | 213.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 45c | 197.58$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 34c | 187.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 182.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 28c | 181.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 77c | 169.57$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 29c | 160.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 159.53$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 134.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 124$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185b…0f27backed No | 71c | 114.62$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 105.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 26c | 99.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 30c | 96.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 56c | 96.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 35c | 92.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 30c | 92.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 59c | 84.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 30c | 82.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 40c | 80.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 63c | 76.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 31c | 74.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 68.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…042dbacked Yes | 37c | 67.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 45c | 66.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 38c | 65.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…9501backed Yes | 33c | 62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4033…48c5backed Yes | 33c | 59.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 55.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3725…abaebacked No | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 57c | 54.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 37c | 50.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1e…9d49backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…c153backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…9179backed No | 66c | 45.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 35c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 41.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5294…53c9backed No | 65c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 74cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9033…bd50backed Yes | 39c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 59c | 39.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 50c | 39.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…4894backed Yes | 29c | 36.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed No | 54c | 36.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…680bbacked Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 57c | 33.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 45c | 33.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad00…c409backed Yes | 35c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 32.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…2f45backed No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 56c | 31.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 38c | 31.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes | 40c | 30.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 40c | 30.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed No | 68c | 29.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…0c32backed No | 55c | 29.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 62c | 25.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8cbbbacked Yes | 45c | 24.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49de…5d47backed No | 56c | 23.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…8eeabacked No | 55c | 23.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 64c | 20.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 74c | 20.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 19.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 62c | 18.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 57c | 18.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0c…ce20backed No | 74c | 16.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.