Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0c24ad30251cee5d53e763f534981291c4a493be0aa3f386e4cac7b01cb6122
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 2c | 5,540$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 58c | 1,242$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.2 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 56c | 702.49$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.4 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 561.78$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 29c | 499.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 6c | 499.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 6c | 361.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…042dbacked Yes | 62c | 320.56$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 42c | 311.7$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.29 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 61c | 276.17$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.44 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 30c | 255.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 47c | 244.92$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 48c | 235.19$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.44 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 216.85$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.35 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 213.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…acf0backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 36c | 199.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.3 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 191.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 185.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 171$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 55c | 165.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 71c | 163.54$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed No | 70c | 157.64$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 156.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 57c | 147.49$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 47c | 146.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 20c | 146.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked No | 64c | 144.3$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 31c | 135$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 44c | 127.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked No | 59c | 110.26$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 76c | 105.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 29c | 102.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 11c | 100.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…0348backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 88.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 88.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 32c | 86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed No | 55c | 85.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 67c | 84.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 59c | 84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Yes | 79c | 83.52$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 49c | 82.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 35c | 82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 29c | 81.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda8…7795backed No | 56c | 79.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 48c | 76.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 45c | 75.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 30c | 74.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 50c | 71.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 27c | 66.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 45c | 66.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 27c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 26c | 64.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 50c | 60.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 46c | 60.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 30c | 53.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 46c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 59c | 50.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1e…9d49backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…7b63backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…7421backed No | 72c | 48.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked No | 28c | 46.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 43.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 52c | 42.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 46c | 40.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 74c | 40.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 47c | 39.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 40c | 38.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 37.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 31c | 35.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da5…4004backed No | 52c | 33.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9743…d3a4backed No | 40c | 32.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked Yes | 39c | 31.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 51c | 30.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7a…73c0backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 60c | 29.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 63c | 28.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 60c | 28.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 47c | 27.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…7275backed Yes | 51c | 25.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.