Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x888cc9a3942c42ee392ecc0129f80dfc4fa2e997e224caf977f12ebb72c51f48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 18c | 1,735$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.78 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 78c | 550.2$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.71 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 6c | 502.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 3c | 340$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 14c | 312.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 25c | 288.76$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 22c | 255.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 18c | 230.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 193.67$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 187.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 8c | 185.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…9037backed No | 79c | 177.85$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 18c | 176.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 28c | 162.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…9179backed Yes | 21c | 141.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 132.6$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 27c | 131.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 17c | 125.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…9501backed Yes | 15c | 122$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 116.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 11c | 109.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 100.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…3d79backed Yes | 21c | 99.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 28c | 98.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 89.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 25c | 85.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 21c | 84.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 80.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 18c | 72.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…8fabbacked Yes | 15c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…fcd6backed No | 78c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 20c | 63.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 20c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 19c | 61.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 33c | 60.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 37c | 54.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…df57backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 73c | 40.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 80c | 37.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 34.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 32.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 75c | 31.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 74c | 27.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 22.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 79c | 19.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f9…94a6backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.