NFL · resolved market
DET vs. CIN: O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e1af406801530aed53cb66b79e7d52cbfabcf4066a13e1c6a2ab249b909d9f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 19,456$9,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,433.31 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 51c | 17,250$8,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,452.47 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…234fbacked Under | 52c | 10,056$5,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,827.41 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 49c | 9,374$4,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,593.26 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa90…c709backed Under | 51c | 3,028$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 2,925$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.77 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Over | 47c | 2,311$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.26 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 48c | 630$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf807…c5dcbacked Under | 68c | 496.94$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.3 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 472$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.28 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 31c | 389.06$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.21 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 335.67$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.66 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 49c | 317.62$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.63 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Over | 43c | 257$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.68 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 50c | 212$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 49c | 193.85$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Over | 49c | 178.27$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 35c | 144.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 45c | 96.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76f5…8ad6backed Over | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 49c | 75.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed Over | 55c | 63.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked Over | 49c | 58.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 51c | 54.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 37c | 53.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 51c | 41.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…eebbbacked Over | 42c | 33.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 49c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 42c | 27.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DET vs. CIN: O/U 38.5this page
- DET vs. CIN: O/U 37.5Under won
- Lions vs. BengalsBengals won
- Spread: CIN (-3.5)DET won
- Spread: CIN (-4.5)DET won
- Spread: CIN (-6.5)DET won
- Spread: CIN (-7.5)DET won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.