NFL · resolved market
Spread: CIN (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a0ecd0b7cafe6cc7ce78150596d749527977895d3a8c0986c0b2c61cb0db8b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- DETof CIN, DET
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed DET | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed DET | 51c | 586.5$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed CIN | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed CIN | 49c | 497.95$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bc…42c1backed DET | 47c | 293.52$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked CIN | 51c | 193.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed CIN | 49c | 186.4$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed DET | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed CIN | 38c | 112.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked CIN | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed DET | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed DET | 45c | 97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed CIN | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed CIN | 41c | 69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed CIN | 52c | 62.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…40ecbacked DET | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed DET | 48c | 51.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…7409backed DET | 54c | 44.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed DET | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked DET | 48c | 39.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc429…1c89backed CIN | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed CIN | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed DET | 48c | 29.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked CIN | 46c | 27.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked CIN | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked DET | 49c | 20.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CIN (-6.5)this page
- DET vs. CIN: O/U 37.5Under won
- DET vs. CIN: O/U 38.5Under won
- Lions vs. BengalsBengals won
- Spread: CIN (-3.5)DET won
- Spread: CIN (-4.5)DET won
- Spread: CIN (-7.5)DET won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.