NFL · resolved market
DET vs. CIN: O/U 37.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc7af7f80bfb4bccd8430740ea81b1f2093bc6ef1d4eb02529a71e9a2c1d225d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 48c | 13,170$6,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,848.49 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…234fbacked Under | 48c | 10,139$4,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,273.59 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 9,817$5,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,104.77 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 52c | 8,000$4,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,160 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 52c | 3,750$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 52c | 1,700$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 578.1$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.64 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 519.76$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.28 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 240$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 50c | 239.31$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.98 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 188.38$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa871…3932backed Over | 52c | 154.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Over | 50c | 154.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 34c | 137.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 50c | 127.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65a4…1963backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Over | 52c | 78.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 42c | 71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 43c | 69.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 49c | 49.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 46c | 47.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked Over | 52c | 45.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Over | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9f…10cabacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 51c | 36.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 52c | 30.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked Over | 52c | 29.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 49c | 28.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed Over | 52c | 27.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 52c | 25.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 52c | 19.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DET vs. CIN: O/U 37.5this page
- DET vs. CIN: O/U 38.5Under won
- Lions vs. BengalsBengals won
- Spread: CIN (-3.5)DET won
- Spread: CIN (-4.5)DET won
- Spread: CIN (-6.5)DET won
- Spread: CIN (-7.5)DET won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.