MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e21a24a093f1f6f4e48ff7f338f6451b25468d390c98a17784aa635cf503173
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72d8…5213backed Under | 51c | 112,314$57,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,033.66 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 49c | 91,548$44,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,858.52 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 52c | 26,644$13,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,790.97 | 552 | 53.1%293 W · 259 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Over | 49c | 20,400$9,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,996 | 277 | 53.1%147 W · 130 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 13,222$6,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,337.73 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 48c | 7,777$3,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,732.96 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 2,663$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.12 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 47c | 1,426$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.06 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 52c | 999.99$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.99 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b96…4a58backed Over | 3c | 900$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 48c | 816$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.68 | 925 | 54.1%500 W · 425 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 48c | 641.81$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.07 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 590.1$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.05 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 53c | 572$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.14 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 537$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.76 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…10d3backed Over | 12c | 519.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 287 | 50.9%146 W · 141 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…aa92backed Under | 53c | 433.96$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.96 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 48c | 420$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 53c | 419.39$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.11 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 49c | 380.75$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.72 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Over | 50c | 360$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 51c | 350$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 49c | 263.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.46 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…e2b1backed Over | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 25c | 235.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 27c | 234$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fb…1c4abacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Under | 60c | 167.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 58c | 161.77$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 34c | 148.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 132.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 49c | 130$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 108.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 20c | 88.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 50c | 88.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 47c | 84.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 47c | 70.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 425 | 48.2%205 W · 220 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Over | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Under | 53c | 69.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked Under | 51c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 148 | 51.4%76 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed Over | 48c | 51.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Under | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 51c | 39.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 40c | 33.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Over | 48c | 28.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 391 | 51.9%203 W · 188 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…1068backed Over | 47c | 25.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 48c | 25.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Under | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Over | 49c | 20.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 49c | 20.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…91ccbacked Under | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.