MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa42ff0480da39afdd60f930f4d2e39d33b67d3781587043b5cfaaddc88e3a765
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 51c | 4,593$2,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,236.53 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 3,672$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 1,588$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 3c | 946$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 1c | 902.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 46c | 761$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.94 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…2407backed Over | 4c | 750$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 549.19$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.68 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Over | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 454.32$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 35c | 265$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…e2b1backed Over | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 44c | 249.98$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.99 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 13c | 195.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 31c | 190.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 55c | 187.82$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.3 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 184.59$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.47 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 57c | 165.73$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.89 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 18c | 149.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Over | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 19c | 113.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 33c | 109.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 43c | 93.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…10d3backed Over | 19c | 93.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 274 | 51.8%142 W · 132 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 84.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed Over | 56c | 70.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 56c | 67.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 43c | 49.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 52c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 32c | 47.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 46.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 33c | 40.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…1968backed Over | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 66c | 29.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 24.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 48c | 21.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…8546backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5this page
- Athletics vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.