Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks vs. Bryant Bulldogs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e618400290e38c159ffde26b6195c41ed79be4609e7330c14f1efe0aa79425c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawksof Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks, Bryant Bulldogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x659c…85bbbacked Bryant Bulldogs | 42c | 6,333$2,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 66c | 4,715$3,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.82 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…0171backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 50c | 4,024$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,027.19 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…ced2backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 53c | 1,871$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.78 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ae…f107backed Bryant Bulldogs | 34c | 1,731$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.75 | 423 | 27.2%115 W · 308 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bryant Bulldogs | 50c | 1,396$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.59 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Bryant Bulldogs | 54c | 999.98$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bryant Bulldogs | 43c | 996.01$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.33 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 44c | 970.47$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.99 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 46c | 960.54$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.69 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 59c | 958.93$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.98 | 158 | 61.4%97 W · 61 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…2aebbacked Bryant Bulldogs | 33c | 850$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 67c | 837.62$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.41 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Bryant Bulldogs | 30c | 797.42$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.09 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bryant Bulldogs | 28c | 796.25$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.78 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7a…a1f2backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 62c | 646.61$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.61 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bryant Bulldogs | 56c | 460.8$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.42 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…7754backed Bryant Bulldogs | 51c | 383.56$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Bryant Bulldogs | 57c | 350.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 484 | 62.8%304 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8498…d219backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 56c | 337.14$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Bryant Bulldogs | 34c | 332.29$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.98 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.09 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 69c | 318.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Bryant Bulldogs | 56c | 310.02$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed Bryant Bulldogs | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 46c | 275.53$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.79 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Bryant Bulldogs | 33c | 261.03$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…886abacked Bryant Bulldogs | 8c | 252.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 46c | 226$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.04 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 47c | 194.98$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.84 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 71c | 186.02$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 98 | 71.4%70 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb60d…bfb5backed Bryant Bulldogs | 42c | 154.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Bryant Bulldogs | 56c | 144$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Bryant Bulldogs | 55c | 133$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc36b…a540backed Bryant Bulldogs | 9c | 131.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 59c | 126.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Bryant Bulldogs | 47c | 105.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9087…d582backed Bryant Bulldogs | 14c | 99.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Bryant Bulldogs | 33c | 93.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 58c | 91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…2da7backed Bryant Bulldogs | 40c | 90.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 66c | 82.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 369 | 42.3%156 W · 213 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0105…ddacbacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 66c | 66.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Bryant Bulldogs | 41c | 58.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 43c | 53.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x114c…53f4backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Bryant Bulldogs | 37c | 44.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -61%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6038…2130backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 46c | 43.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Bryant Bulldogs | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 58c | 40.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…5cc6backed Bryant Bulldogs | 46c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf447…3fe7backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 44c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Bryant Bulldogs | 39c | 37.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 42c | 37.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae3…493abacked Bryant Bulldogs | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aad…ff47backed Bryant Bulldogs | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbc…d46fbacked Bryant Bulldogs | 56c | 33.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…e011backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 43c | 33.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c9…cca9backed Bryant Bulldogs | 57c | 33.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…ef81backed Bryant Bulldogs | 43c | 32.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…e450backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…361bbacked Bryant Bulldogs | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 98 | 21.4%21 W · 77 L | -17.7wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2d97…9283backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Bryant Bulldogs | 55c | 26.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 350 | 50.3%176 W · 174 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 68c | 26.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 44c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aab…685dbacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks | 59c | 20.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 459 | 53.8%247 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…dc02backed Bryant Bulldogs | 57c | 19.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks vs. Bryant Bulldogsthis page
- Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks vs. Bryant Bulldogs: O/U 142.5Under won
- Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks vs. Bryant Bulldogs: O/U 143.5Under won
- Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks vs. Bryant Bulldogs: O/U 144.5Under won
- Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks vs. Bryant Bulldogs: O/U 146.5Under won
- Spread: Bryant Bulldogs (-1.5)Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks won
- Spread: Bryant Bulldogs (-2.5)Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.