Poker · resolved market
Will Europe Win the WSOP Main Event
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f8d3367c5cca317960f6ddab5f8b7d9795e2cab0f84c6cf059a4da0c648ad46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 16c | 7,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…6621backed Yes | 10c | 894.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 621.87$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Yes | 13c | 518.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 16c | 449.1$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd3…f7d3backed No | 61c | 413.1$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 32c | 401.95$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +258.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…3c74backed Yes | 26c | 306.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…4e71backed Yes | 38c | 296.46$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 79c | 220$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 180.14$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…4c92backed Yes | 15c | 135.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 119$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Yes | 10c | 117.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 101$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…cc22backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…0121backed No | 64c | 59.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 30.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Europe Win the WSOP Main Eventthis page
- Will Africa Win the WSOP Main EventNo won
- Will Asia Win the WSOP Main EventNo won
- Will North America Win the WSOP Main EventYes won
- Will Oceania Win the WSOP Main EventNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.