Euroleague · resolved market
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Bayern Munchen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fac1f28689e979b3be20c2d2a864d9e7b951833f35c28870a15a6b6f29bdfb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maccabi Tel Avivof Maccabi Tel Aviv, FC Bayern Munchen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked FC Bayern Munchen | 34c | 3,541$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.33 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 63c | 3,338$2,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.32 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed FC Bayern Munchen | 41c | 2,708$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.64 | 145 | 42.1%61 W · 84 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Maccabi Tel Aviv | 76c | 1,551$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.39 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed FC Bayern Munchen | 37c | 1,432$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.66 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6519…76cabacked Maccabi Tel Aviv | 56c | 917.53$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.93 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Maccabi Tel Aviv | 62c | 847.25$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.92 | 275 | 57.5%158 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed FC Bayern Munchen | 47c | 823$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Maccabi Tel Aviv | 63c | 752.96$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.12 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed FC Bayern Munchen | 25c | 701.5$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.72 | 314 | 46.2%145 W · 169 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1582…e47ebacked FC Bayern Munchen | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed FC Bayern Munchen | 38c | 545.22$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.64 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…c8dcbacked Maccabi Tel Aviv | 65c | 538.46$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 35c | 527.7$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…737abacked Maccabi Tel Aviv | 66c | 493.53$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.85 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 63c | 412.85$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 57c | 400$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked FC Bayern Munchen | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 34c | 360$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 51c | 354.21$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.03 | 369 | 39.8%147 W · 222 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 79c | 354$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Maccabi Tel Aviv | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed FC Bayern Munchen | 9c | 262.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 265 | 44.5%118 W · 147 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Maccabi Tel Aviv | 49c | 249.2$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 316 | 51.6%163 W · 153 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…7a4ebacked FC Bayern Munchen | 28c | 232.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed FC Bayern Munchen | 37c | 216.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa839…6f8cbacked Maccabi Tel Aviv | 67c | 202.56$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0d…0789backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Maccabi Tel Aviv | 63c | 180.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 181 | 44.2%80 W · 101 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…5b77backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 49c | 162.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Maccabi Tel Aviv | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed FC Bayern Munchen | 29c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…7358backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf464…0607backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 67c | 149.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed FC Bayern Munchen | 42c | 141.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1d…d05ebacked Maccabi Tel Aviv | 60c | 134.04$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…9d62backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 57c | 124.46$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed FC Bayern Munchen | 23c | 124$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x980e…c819backed FC Bayern Munchen | 36c | 123.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5700…a854backed FC Bayern Munchen | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 77c | 113.62$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 370 | 52.7%195 W · 175 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…22d6backed FC Bayern Munchen | 38c | 108.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71ac…5fd6backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 63c | 101.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Maccabi Tel Aviv | 63c | 101.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadd…637dbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 25c | 100.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked FC Bayern Munchen | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed FC Bayern Munchen | 26c | 94.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 60c | 79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +168%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed FC Bayern Munchen | 23c | 76.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 255 | 17.6%45 W · 210 L | -29.4wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed FC Bayern Munchen | 23c | 75.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…d644backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 64c | 73.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe219…55babacked Maccabi Tel Aviv | 64c | 72.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…1805backed FC Bayern Munchen | 33c | 69.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd4…676ebacked FC Bayern Munchen | 33c | 69.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…6c41backed FC Bayern Munchen | 35c | 68.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked FC Bayern Munchen | 36c | 64.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 435 | 43.7%190 W · 245 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…ed48backed FC Bayern Munchen | 33c | 64.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…899bbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 27c | 61.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 209 | 36.4%76 W · 133 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…2dcfbacked Maccabi Tel Aviv | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked Maccabi Tel Aviv | 59c | 60.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed FC Bayern Munchen | 36c | 59.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8687…1db0backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 65c | 58.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 35c | 58.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed FC Bayern Munchen | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 35c | 49.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 352 | 34.7%122 W · 230 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 53c | 48.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…de84backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 64c | 40.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed FC Bayern Munchen | 37c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba9f…c88bbacked Maccabi Tel Aviv | 66c | 34.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b85…a1fdbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 35c | 32.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3dd…5bebbacked Maccabi Tel Aviv | 65c | 30.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40c…074abacked FC Bayern Munchen | 38c | 29.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56fd…3727backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 66c | 29.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2794…7a76backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 65c | 21.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 60c | 19.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Maccabi Tel Aviv | 60c | 17.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…6ca2backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Maccabi Tel Aviv | 77c | 14.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.