Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fb296f8bbb5e0d44fc6a8b3f6e33953fbc8fb416cf143089747166a0296ea79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 29c | 1,359$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.81 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 32c | 1,040$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.31 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 32c | 589$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.67 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 70c | 414$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.37 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 367.95$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 8c | 343.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 324.74$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 70c | 310.8$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.62 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 35c | 293.34$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.62 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 34c | 290$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 64c | 266.1$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.96 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 30c | 263.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 252.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 36c | 250$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 171.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 154.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 68c | 145.17$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 144.53$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 143.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 34c | 113$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 109.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 36c | 105.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 97.78$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 71c | 95.19$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 35c | 94.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 90.01$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 34c | 89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 87.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 84.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 80c | 76.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7142…e79ebacked Yes | 30c | 64.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 74c | 61.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 69c | 59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 32c | 56.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…7abfbacked Yes | 30c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d15…4a14backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 39.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 37.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 27.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 78c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 19.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 72c | 18.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 17.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0c…b790backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 65c | 16.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.