TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,746
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,722

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,746 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes34c885.49$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb902…06d8backed Yes44c682.84$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007159.2%42 W · 29 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes40c635.99$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.5225135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No56c512.12$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.331,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8299…05f3backed Yes15c503.95$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Yes35c445.24$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.836624.2%16 W · 50 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No55c346.63$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No68c326.19$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.912,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb56c…30f3backed Yes6c325.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0210455.8%58 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No72c310.28$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.412,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26cb…a394backed No66c250$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8512437.1%46 W · 78 L-17.5wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes8c224.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1891444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.214,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes39c166.76$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.042,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes24c139.94$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.914,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes34c130.55$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.735,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No55c119.8$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.013,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes23c110.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.718,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No67c108.08$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.596,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No76c106$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.845,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4352758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes38c96$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.064,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No61c93.84$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.281,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes40c90.47$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.763,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No69c88.07$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.284,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No66c85.87$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.331,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06f2…8798backed No65c85$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7516566.1%109 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes30c80.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.352,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes37c79.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5770148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c1…b127backed Yes18c75.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4617020%34 W · 136 L-21.0wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-50.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbce6…e428backed Yes34c71.09$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.431435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No65c70$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.23,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…9288backed No59c62.89$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6917262.2%107 W · 65 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes20c62.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.438,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes32c62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8416335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6724…84efbacked Yes38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156827.9%19 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c1f…aff0backed Yes38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.840%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No66c57.9$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.691,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No72c57$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.964,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No66c56$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.041,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No66c56$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.042,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No57c55.81$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.834,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No68c55.4$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.732,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.517637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.518131.5%57 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa874…c532backed No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.333,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No72c44.43$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.332,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No56c43.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.021,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d15…4a14backed Yes36c43.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.491650%8 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7142…e79ebacked Yes35c41.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.592740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No59c34.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3642366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed Yes45c33.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1524451.2%125 W · 119 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.452,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No55c33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8554853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes36c30.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No55c27.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.421,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes45c26.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1215347.1%72 W · 81 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb141…aa3bbacked No64c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6412453.2%66 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0066…20a1backed No77c22.29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.248865.9%58 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked No67c21.35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9831748.6%154 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fb1…e637backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0657…2b79backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.83073.3%22 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x002d…47a2backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.82777.8%21 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+25.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb22a…1479backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.83369.7%23 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf79e…e434backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.82483.3%20 W · 4 L+5.0wins+0.21per pick63cpaid+34.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd99c…8490backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.82479.2%19 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.17per pick62cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7537465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.839768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.41,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x608f…9065backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.84477.3%34 W · 10 L+6.2wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+22%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc798…6254backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.82972.4%21 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b67…3998backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.83461.8%21 W · 13 L+0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd219…0412backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.82070%14 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb58…ccd0backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.616065.6%105 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35d7…28f8backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.816946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.89848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab0c…b790backed No68c17.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.651258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick69cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No63c16.91$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3376924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No74c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1627169%187 W · 84 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ff1…1be9backed No77c15.55$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.561181.8%9 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick75cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No77c13.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.1149359%291 W · 202 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.