Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Baltazar Fedalizo advance from the CA-37 primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6028c69016e36a3d7aa93e3e82a5cf8cb0a859df4c38b9f136eea6ee12a8a34e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x120b…ee03backed No | 39c | 2,406$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e89…8946backed Yes | 56c | 751.49$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Yes | 55c | 709.4$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.11 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 600$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 52c | 551.19$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.11 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 63c | 418.1$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.51 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 72c | 130$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 46c | 104.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 50c | 84.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 51c | 69.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb90f…b7c8backed Yes | 63c | 67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 49c | 63.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 41.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2773…045cbacked Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…eca6backed No | 51c | 27.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 57c | 25.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…0fe6backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…f76ebacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8878…9377backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d74…63cfbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Baltazar Fedalizo advance from the CA-37 primary election?this page
- Will Elizabeth Fenner advance from the CA-37 primary election?No won
- Will John Thompson Parker advance from the CA-37 primary election?No won
- Will Steven Hill advance from the CA-37 primary election?No won
- Will Todd Lombardo advance from the CA-37 primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.