Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60a734b70dcebb37656a2a170a37682e50297859dccdbd278c5cd08d2a59212e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 12c | 1,494$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed Yes | 16c | 955.24$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.84 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 26c | 587.64$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 568.32$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 552.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 21c | 505.03$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.32 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 18c | 417$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 19c | 332.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 31c | 283.53$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 19c | 269.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 263.14$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 247.71$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 241$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 238.8$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 225.65$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 197.34$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…e1b7backed Yes | 21c | 177.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 150.67$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 135$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 126.85$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 119$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…70a4backed Yes | 31c | 115.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 106.66$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 24c | 104.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed No | 79c | 102.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 101.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…d445backed Yes | 23c | 99.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 99.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 33c | 97.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 75c | 88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x593a…b9f4backed Yes | 23c | 86.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 19c | 83.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 27c | 83.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 25c | 80.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 79c | 75.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 71.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…01fabacked Yes | 16c | 68.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 77c | 57.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 22c | 54.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…46c1backed Yes | 23c | 47.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc96…20b6backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 25c | 41.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 28c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 79c | 32.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 78c | 27.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x462e…a612backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 24.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 76c | 24.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 22.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…6e1cbacked No | 79c | 19.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 65c | 17.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 17.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 16.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 79c | 13.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C or higher on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.