TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,536
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,501

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,536 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes66c1,347$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.828421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No74c870.65$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.792,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed Yes29c634.33$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.196750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes66c589.54$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.366,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No62c578.57$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.964,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes75c569.65$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.1527079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No50c490.83$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.214,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No66c445.44$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.1410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes32c443.4$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.6481558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes32c380.76$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.762,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No13c339.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.981,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes25c337.57$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.782,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed No11c320.88$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.637258.3%42 W · 30 L+10.6wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+57.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes30c297.19$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.678,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No76c265.05$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.231,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No21c263.06$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.832,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No72c254$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.794,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No12c250.92$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2359121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xed29…3848backed Yes23c227.65$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.195028%14 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+47.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes34c211.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.9127047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf56c…e1b7backed Yes18c204.8$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.23834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No29c200.54$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3577151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes22c200$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.5843932.8%144 W · 295 L+20.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c195.47$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.245,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes48c193$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.6712927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No56c189.18$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.796,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9973…6e40backed Yes31c186.58$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.747040%28 W · 42 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No72c182$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.815,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8116…465dbacked Yes28c171.56$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.763525.7%9 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No9c166.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.633,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes25c162.66$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.259425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked No9c145.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5731062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes19c136$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1660236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes18c135.95$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.9561629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No43c134.39$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.479947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed No70c130.64$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.134533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No79c120$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.33,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No73c119.02$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.714,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No73c106$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.34,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6970148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No77c100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.063,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7126540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee2a…729bbacked Yes34c99.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9910426%27 W · 77 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes30c97.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.0842948%206 W · 223 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes29c97.79$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0750860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed No71c97$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8737150.4%187 W · 184 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c96.96$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1ac…99ddbacked Yes32c93.75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.751533.3%5 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No77c93.12$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.82,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes31c92.47$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No69c84$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2719737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc85b…ba1bbacked No70c83$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5119071.6%136 W · 54 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06da…af33backed Yes30c79.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3925332%81 W · 172 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes34c77.56$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1921847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes30c74.97$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4880735.4%286 W · 521 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No61c74.63$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.31,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No14c74.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.597,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed No14c72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4442849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa6af…01fabacked No32c68.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.741717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae73…09fabacked No73c67.56$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.32728.6%2 W · 5 L-3.2wins-0.46per pick75cpaid-61.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes61c65.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes31c60.21$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.581,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes29c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3356048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes20c60$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4894919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes18c59.29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7254253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes23c57.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.911,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No70c53.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.886949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No67c50.27$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.683,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No75c50.08$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8154867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3723941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No78c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.276059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes21c49.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4910042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No66c49.97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9828163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes33c47.24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6559144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…395bbacked Yes32c45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7233628.9%97 W · 239 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No69c44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3641752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No25c42.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7583459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes30c41.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3311947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No79c40$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.61,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No73c39.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.280275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf49…5c3abacked Yes31c37.44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.83633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6793…1869backed No68c36.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7931564.8%204 W · 111 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes64c36$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8266758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c34.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.155,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes32c33.42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.881,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No69c32.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.271,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c6…cd99backed Yes79c31.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.441573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10ba…2f9abacked Yes33c30.91$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.693828.9%11 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x142a…a44abacked No36c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9517945.3%81 W · 98 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf642…118dbacked No70c28.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x163d…7c69backed No70c28.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No77c27.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.713,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No76c27.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5971057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes60c26.83$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.834540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e3…5897backed No66c26.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.348431%26 W · 58 L-20.8wins-0.25per pick56cpaid-52.8%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No69c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.254,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf75…005cbacked No76c24.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.64755.3%26 W · 21 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick68cpaid-23.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6986…5585backed No69c21.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.69852%51 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.