Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5be7484f57e5878df61998b9730a3b15de63be9b68763ddf3dccb378beef1b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45aa…7949backed Yes | 0c | 4,431$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 1c | 3,677$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 49c | 2,055$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 53c | 1,098$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.07 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 58c | 1,031$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.93 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 871.49$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 598.17$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.69 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 540$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 507.81$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.12 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 52c | 500$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 463$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed No | 51c | 447.55$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.28 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 48c | 396.88$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.22 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 3c | 342.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 330$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.94 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked Yes | 4c | 316.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 44c | 311.82$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.35 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 305.19$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 51c | 287.02$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.36 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 50c | 280.06$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 260.36$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 51c | 248.51$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 47c | 243.3$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.42 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 53c | 214$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.58 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 210.75$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.01 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 209$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 60c | 201.15$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 192$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 182$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 161.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.98 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 47c | 153.84$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.78 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 49c | 148.56$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 145.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 63c | 136.56$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…a036backed No | 63c | 126.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 43c | 125.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…70a4backed Yes | 50c | 119.28$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 44c | 112$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 52c | 104$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…125dbacked No | 53c | 94.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 54c | 91.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 58c | 88.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 46c | 88.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 47c | 77.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 44c | 75.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 68.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 35c | 67.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 45c | 67.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 42c | 67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 47c | 63.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 44c | 61.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed No | 50c | 58.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 54c | 55.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 54c | 53.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 51.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 47c | 49.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…c070backed No | 46c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 48c | 46.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed No | 51c | 46.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 46c | 45.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcde6…71dcbacked Yes | 58c | 40.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf49…5c3abacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…d445backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 50c | 39.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 63c | 39.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 48c | 39.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9297…358bbacked Yes | 51c | 39.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 50c | 39.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 38c | 39.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163d…7c69backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 64c | 38.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 50c | 36.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 49c | 36.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 51c | 35.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 46c | 35.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 34.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 33.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 47c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C or higher on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.