TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,285
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,904

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,285 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x45aa…7949backed Yes0c4,431$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes1c3,677$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes49c2,055$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes53c1,098$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.0725135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes58c1,031$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.9315527.7%43 W · 112 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No48c871.49$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.022,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No49c598.17$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.694,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes6c540$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.346,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No47c507.81$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.124,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes52c500$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26239427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No48c463$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.945,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed No51c447.55$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.286750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No48c396.88$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.222,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes3c342.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8219737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No45c330$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.944,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4441…680abacked Yes4c316.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No44c311.82$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.351,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No51c305.19$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.323,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes51c287.02$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.3634533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes50c280.06$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9920133.3%67 W · 134 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No49c260.36$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.696,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes51c248.51$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.765934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No47c243.3$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.422,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No53c214$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5889557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No53c210.75$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.012,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No75c209$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.534,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No60c201.15$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6479947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No51c192$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.244,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No49c182$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.595,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No46c161.78$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.981,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb141…aa3bbacked No47c153.84$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7812453.2%66 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No49c148.56$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4783459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No55c145.35$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.965,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes63c136.56$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.154637%17 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9980…a036backed No63c126.54$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.543560%21 W · 14 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes43c125.36$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9210…70a4backed Yes50c119.28$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.063429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No44c112$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3431649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe272…ccefbacked Yes52c104$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.082343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.954,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5129732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5270148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed No48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525450%27 W · 27 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.143,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes47c99.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes51c99.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9926540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8b9…125dbacked No53c94.01$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.011080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+22.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes54c91.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504017.5%7 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd969…0932backed Yes58c88.97$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.744134.1%14 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No46c88.75$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.811,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No47c77.16$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1768867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No44c75.16$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3080735.4%286 W · 521 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No51c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No38c68.46$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.471,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No35c67.59$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.934,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd456…63a4backed Yes45c67.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304247.6%20 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes42c67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0547538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes47c63.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No44c61.7$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5557150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3056048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e1…f420backed No50c58.53$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.272556%14 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes54c55.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3061249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes44c55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.22,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2bc…1485backed Yes54c53.87$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.096346%29 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No59c51.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.93,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed No44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287258.3%42 W · 30 L+10.6wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+57.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.512927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2954867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.518449.5%91 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No47c49.98$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5976059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x429c…c070backed No46c49$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+116%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes48c46.87$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.542948%206 W · 223 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b0…bae1backed No51c46.31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.553625%9 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes46c45.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9925342.3%107 W · 146 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4433350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.481,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcde6…71dcbacked Yes58c40.26$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick71cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf49…5c3abacked Yes52c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x276a…d445backed No56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.64632.6%15 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No48c39.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf3b…880abacked Yes50c39.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes63c39.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No48c39.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5237465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9297…358bbacked Yes51c39.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x518c…d366backed Yes50c39.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.648637.2%32 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes38c39.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9952446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x163d…7c69backed No51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.221546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No64c38.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9615669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes50c36.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2754656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2058138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No49c36.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5154253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No51c36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.83,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed Yes51c35.32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0139543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7a1…a85ebacked No46c35.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.955468.5%37 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No40c34.06$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.372,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No54c33.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.454,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No47c33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.62,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.