TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FUT Esportsof FUT Esports, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$323,045
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$333,122

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $323,045 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 319 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked FUT Esports49c58,579$28,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,610.887236.1%26 W · 46 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3522…188fbacked FUT Esports51c47,424$24,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,320.83342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Natus Vincere51c29,564$15,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,193.3128955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed Natus Vincere49c22,765$11,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,154.892020%4 W · 16 L-6.2wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-60.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed FUT Esports47c16,993$8,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,971.0654751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x994d…e0afbacked Natus Vincere0c16,921$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.92580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Natus Vincere50c15,217$7,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,608.489644.8%43 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Natus Vincere48c14,905$7,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,164.8412951.2%66 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Natus Vincere47c13,180$6,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,246.46747.8%32 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Natus Vincere53c7,609$4,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,053.8415850%79 W · 79 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7150…0a2bbacked Natus Vincere52c7,500$3,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,875616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick50cpaid-73.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed FUT Esports53c6,674$3,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,112.4933346.5%155 W · 178 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Natus Vincere49c5,009$2,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,454.471338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed Natus Vincere48c5,000$2,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4231758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Natus Vincere51c4,222$2,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,153.225253.8%28 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked Natus Vincere49c4,165$2,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,040.75450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Natus Vincere53c4,000$2,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,139.9916952.1%88 W · 81 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked FUT Esports49c3,876$1,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,970.4233153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FUT Esports55c3,766$2,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,70468458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked FUT Esports51c3,716$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,804.8728747.4%136 W · 151 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed Natus Vincere49c3,417$1,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,674.324332.6%14 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FUT Esports55c3,084$1,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,401.0353159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FUT Esports51c2,915$1,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,432.2165559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Natus Vincere50c2,542$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.2545033.8%152 W · 298 L-35.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Natus Vincere69c2,445$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.2532462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf940…8701backed FUT Esports37c2,372$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,504.42580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+62.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked FUT Esports49c2,112$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.1636138.5%139 W · 222 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcf…056bbacked Natus Vincere50c2,098$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.071942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Natus Vincere49c2,036$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.512147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere50c2,008$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.3293148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4afb…ed2bbacked Natus Vincere50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Natus Vincere52c1,962$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.862751.9%14 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked FUT Esports45c1,937$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.2578162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Natus Vincere51c1,930$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.2311255.4%62 W · 50 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed FUT Esports51c1,871$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.6810946.8%51 W · 58 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed FUT Esports46c1,749$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.3739042.6%166 W · 224 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Natus Vincere57c1,434$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.2942540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed FUT Esports42c1,411$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.2170251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked FUT Esports39c1,394$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.2314152.5%74 W · 67 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked FUT Esports52c1,388$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.6819157.1%109 W · 82 L+23.4wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+26.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Natus Vincere59c1,372$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.7717448.3%84 W · 90 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed FUT Esports62c1,306$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.9156357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed FUT Esports28c1,287$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.298638.4%33 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x338c…1b33backed Natus Vincere50c1,250$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.1810956%61 W · 48 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e9b…11f7backed Natus Vincere53c1,200$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+72.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed Natus Vincere50c1,164$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5821145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked FUT Esports51c1,091$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.0953355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked FUT Esports59c1,048$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.9688844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Natus Vincere61c1,013$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.1416842.3%71 W · 97 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked FUT Esports51c1,005$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.382268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+37.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed FUT Esports46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5409837.8%37 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed FUT Esports52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48015553.5%83 W · 72 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5eb…9120backed Natus Vincere54c1,000$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5351040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24eb…75eebacked Natus Vincere50c999.31$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.662045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked FUT Esports48c954.93$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.7186747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c1…7487backed FUT Esports30c946.76$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.29742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4232…d505backed FUT Esports50c911.8$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.94544.4%20 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed FUT Esports50c904.25$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.421558.1%125 W · 90 L+15.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Natus Vincere58c898.93$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.1221048.1%101 W · 109 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Natus Vincere51c878.99$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.536648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere58c837.02$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.661,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed FUT Esports37c795.83$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.545149%25 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Natus Vincere48c791.52$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.085156.9%29 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c61…c5fdbacked Natus Vincere28c775.72$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.48728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Natus Vincere62c740.47$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.6130147.2%142 W · 159 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d91…c930backed Natus Vincere33c734.3$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.3121257.1%121 W · 91 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7e8…4f4bbacked FUT Esports30c728.08$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.668950.6%45 W · 44 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed FUT Esports57c672.47$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.6126051.9%135 W · 125 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Natus Vincere58c670.63$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.1723447%110 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88ba…b99abacked FUT Esports47c668.38$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.457051.4%36 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked FUT Esports46c631.04$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.764252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FUT Esports57c628$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.0494361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Natus Vincere79c626.67$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.631637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x11e1…8d38backed Natus Vincere50c619.15$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.588966.3%59 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Natus Vincere53c611.29$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.982619.2%5 W · 21 L-8.1wins-0.31per pick50cpaid-66.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Natus Vincere50c599.99$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29761035.9%219 W · 391 L-17.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Natus Vincere53c597.28$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.9214447.2%68 W · 76 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed FUT Esports51c595.95$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.015939%23 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8136…772cbacked Natus Vincere50c592.67$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.34666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+19.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d91…bb2abacked FUT Esports50c582$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2917659.2%45 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked FUT Esports19c571.87$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.866953.6%37 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Natus Vincere49c559.67$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.245728.1%16 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-29%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere57c559.51$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.741,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked FUT Esports52c515.22$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.064531.1%14 W · 31 L-9.8wins-0.22per pick53cpaid-45.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Natus Vincere53c505.83$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.0525556.1%143 W · 112 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x355b…18ecbacked Natus Vincere77c503.28$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.1920%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Natus Vincere49c501.75$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.317349.7%86 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Natus Vincere59c498.18$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.5752155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere61c497.26$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.4124250.4%122 W · 120 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked FUT Esports49c483.28$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.0578562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Natus Vincere56c476.14$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.1899846%459 W · 539 L-27.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed FUT Esports23c442.74$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.9128541.1%117 W · 168 L-26.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Natus Vincere44c435.34$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.7526634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Natus Vincere46c420.7$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.523834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2294…824abacked Natus Vincere54c420$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed FUT Esports47c416.33$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.659053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x838a…0815backed Natus Vincere50c388$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7cf…a603backed Natus Vincere49c381.96$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.1630%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1019…d7cabacked Natus Vincere50c381.95$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed FUT Esports51c380.63$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.5119655.6%109 W · 87 L+12.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.