Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc185eecce53c68e2717a5d729a9bfa048f78074d66b9b3b1686671f84563f95

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Natus Vincereof FUT Esports, Natus Vincere
Resolved: Apr 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $52,109
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $52,475

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,109 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Valorant
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe8e1…49ddbacked FUT Esports	35c	5,693$1,976 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,975.59	450	33.8%152 W · 298 L	-35.6wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Natus Vincere	60c	3,390$2,020 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,370.45	67	47.8%32 W · 35 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed FUT Esports	42c	2,804$1,186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,186.06	301	47.2%142 W · 159 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed FUT Esports	31c	2,685$835 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$835.2	931	48.1%448 W · 483 L	-11.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Natus Vincere	60c	2,289$1,378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$911.27	215	58.1%125 W · 90 L	+15.9wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked FUT Esports	41c	2,204$914 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$914.23	888	44.4%394 W · 494 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Natus Vincere	53c	2,159$1,138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,020.89	943	61.2%577 W · 366 L	+58.2wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Natus Vincere	58c	1,321$764 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$556.4	563	57.9%326 W · 237 L	+36.3wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere	67c	1,170$783 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$386.93	684	58.3%399 W · 285 L	+56.5wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed FUT Esports	15c	1,053$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.26	220	18.2%40 W · 180 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere	67c	1,032$687 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$344.81	655	59.4%389 W · 266 L	+50.5wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked FUT Esports	40c	1,008$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.34	191	57.1%109 W · 82 L	+23.4wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere	58c	953.82$553 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$401.3	533	55.3%295 W · 238 L	+24.0wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed FUT Esports	50c	774.25$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.03	111	52.3%58 W · 53 L	-4.6wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed FUT Esports	35c	746$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.9	266	34.6%92 W · 174 L	-13.9wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Natus Vincere	63c	564.94$354 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.98	621	56.4%350 W · 271 L	+13.0wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FUT Esports	28c	550.84$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.99	1,376	47.1%648 W · 728 L	+10.6wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Natus Vincere	50c	549.02$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$275	86	38.4%33 W · 53 L	-7.5wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed FUT Esports	46c	518.73$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.55	51	49%25 W · 26 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked FUT Esports	27c	504.39$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.64	1,358	39%530 W · 828 L	-57.9wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-17%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed Natus Vincere	36c	490.97$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$314.22	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c0…c3b9backed Natus Vincere	52c	386.54$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.54	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b51…2b54backed FUT Esports	47c	385.34$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.11	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked FUT Esports	52c	374$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.48	69	53.6%37 W · 32 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Natus Vincere	49c	305.14$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.5	534	42.1%225 W · 309 L	-15.0wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfef9…d6e9backed FUT Esports	49c	302.52$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.32	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c8f…d581backed FUT Esports	4c	290$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.12	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Natus Vincere	62c	248.32$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.35	168	42.3%71 W · 97 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Natus Vincere	62c	246.45$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.49	210	48.1%101 W · 109 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6510…36d1backed FUT Esports	23c	245$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.35	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	35cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed FUT Esports	54c	243.1$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.27	260	51.9%135 W · 125 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere	75c	227.31$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.11	531	59.1%314 W · 217 L	+41.6wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed Natus Vincere	55c	209.01$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.05	430	59.8%257 W · 173 L	+12.4wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Natus Vincere	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	366	48.4%177 W · 189 L	+12.2wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed FUT Esports	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked FUT Esports	54c	185.8$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.75	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FUT Esports	19c	178.7$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.95	1,417	51.3%727 W · 690 L	+49.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb6d…942cbacked FUT Esports	59c	175$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.25	87	46%40 W · 47 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked FUT Esports	55c	174.61$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.04	223	52.9%118 W · 105 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4af0…7696backed FUT Esports	33c	168.93$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.18	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-26%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc15…3a2ebacked FUT Esports	57c	165.61$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.68	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Natus Vincere	37c	160.95$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.4	173	32.4%56 W · 117 L	-11.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-16%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Natus Vincere	65c	152.94$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.31	164	42.1%69 W · 95 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed FUT Esports	26c	137.41$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.25	575	17.7%102 W · 473 L	-71.7wins	-0.12per pick	30cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf9be…a0c1backed FUT Esports	23c	122.08$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.54	264	36%95 W · 169 L	-15.8wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ce7…81a3backed FUT Esports	55c	119.41$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.68	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7113…08fbbacked Natus Vincere	50c	114.46$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.23	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.7wins	+0.29per pick	38cpaid	+61.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed FUT Esports	64c	106.24$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.89	57	52.6%30 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed FUT Esports	32c	104.01$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.35	702	51.3%360 W · 342 L	+7.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Natus Vincere	60c	102.39$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.83	420	51.9%218 W · 202 L	-21.1wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Natus Vincere	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	101	42.6%43 W · 58 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5ba…06b3backed Natus Vincere	51c	95.92$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.29	70	44.3%31 W · 39 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed FUT Esports	24c	90.93$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.77	305	44.3%135 W · 170 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed FUT Esports	37c	87.24$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.26	636	52.7%335 W · 301 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x73c8…60cabacked Natus Vincere	53c	79.39$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.7	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6617…29bdbacked FUT Esports	33c	77.63$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.62	91	33%30 W · 61 L	-6.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x317f…3a7abacked FUT Esports	30c	63.87$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.16	147	47.6%70 W · 77 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0935…d9efbacked Natus Vincere	63c	62.63$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.17	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	73cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d7…406dbacked FUT Esports	40c	60.15$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.06	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51b6…1903backed FUT Esports	51c	57.28$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.11	263	54.4%143 W · 120 L	-8.5wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed FUT Esports	33c	56.47$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.63	70	52.9%37 W · 33 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed FUT Esports	36c	55.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.92	998	46%459 W · 539 L	-27.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed FUT Esports	40c	48.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.56	189	48.7%92 W · 97 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed FUT Esports	52c	48.56$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.25	278	47.1%131 W · 147 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Natus Vincere	58c	47.03$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.54	291	51.5%150 W · 141 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9009…4144backed FUT Esports	29c	46.03$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.43	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x169e…88c9backed FUT Esports	64c	44.32$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.36	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked FUT Esports	28c	41.73$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.67	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca29…a1d0backed Natus Vincere	43c	41.01$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.38	78	52.6%41 W · 37 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd34…830cbacked FUT Esports	33c	40$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed FUT Esports	33c	40$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	144	36.1%52 W · 92 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed FUT Esports	33c	40$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	158	39.2%62 W · 96 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Natus Vincere	57c	35$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.05	130	35.4%46 W · 84 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a77…4c7abacked FUT Esports	60c	32.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.53	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd146…aa94backed Natus Vincere	55c	32$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.56	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	58cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x428b…20acbacked Natus Vincere	68c	28.85$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.23	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa983…16cbbacked Natus Vincere	71c	27.15$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.89	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-4.7wins	-0.23per pick	37cpaid	-80.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2136…67eabacked Natus Vincere	61c	16.92$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.57	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c49…c6c2backed Natus Vincere	76c	13.53$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.25	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-2.5wins	-0.11per pick	63cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winnerthis page
Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)FUT Esports won
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group AlphaFUT Esports won
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 WinnerFUT Esports won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event