NFL · resolved market
49ers vs. Browns: O/U 35.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6187fe0ca0ca4504096056f87b98931b367e485ea69af67a424f2b636a58cf71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 18,476$9,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,237.37 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 9,839$4,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,920.5 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe796…7f5ebacked Over | 48c | 8,000$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 53c | 6,600$3,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,087.88 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 53c | 4,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 50c | 3,961$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,961.37 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 50c | 3,333$1,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666.5 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 1,910$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.9 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 50c | 1,680$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Over | 50c | 1,560$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Over | 46c | 1,304$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 50c | 1,278$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Over | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.8 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Over | 49c | 968.92$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.77 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 944.78$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.49 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 50c | 665.4$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.7 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Under | 51c | 554.67$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.79 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 499.98$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.99 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Over | 48c | 377.26$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.09 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 299.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.99 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…d648backed Over | 49c | 255.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.85 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Over | 50c | 126.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…129ebacked Under | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Over | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…1d61backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Over | 49c | 98.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…5a71backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…7288backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 49c | 68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…7a53backed Under | 51c | 66.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…3779backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 55.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 54.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…fd60backed Over | 47c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…b91ebacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d31…295dbacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc55b…604ebacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Over | 51c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc2…5786backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 126 | 63.5%80 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9f…ba36backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Under | 51c | 33.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Under | 54c | 32.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…20a3backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…86a5backed Over | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…df92backed Under | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 52c | 21.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 117 | 47.9%56 W · 61 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…78b5backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 49ers vs. Browns: O/U 35.5this page
- 49ers vs. Browns49ers won
- 49ers vs. Browns: 1H Moneyline49ers won
- 49ers vs. Browns: O/U 34.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Browns: O/U 36.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Browns: O/U 39.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Browns: O/U 40.5Under won
- Spread: 49ers (-4.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-5.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-6.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.