NFL · resolved market
Spread: 49ers (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c259f62cb137579e402ed6cb4edd591bf72481eb7e1212f84d9dfb5a9052200
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof 49ers, Browns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed 49ers | 50c | 31,165$15,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,582.47 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Browns | 50c | 21,512$10,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,756.01 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Browns | 50c | 11,651$5,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,825.3 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed 49ers | 50c | 9,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Browns | 51c | 8,333$4,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,250 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Browns | 50c | 5,002$2,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,480.93 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked 49ers | 49c | 4,319$2,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,222.37 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…2960backed Browns | 50c | 3,975$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,987.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65a…c492backed 49ers | 50c | 2,125$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Browns | 52c | 2,031$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e6…dd4bbacked 49ers | 50c | 1,850$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked 49ers | 50c | 1,159$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.78 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Browns | 50c | 1,067$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.17 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Browns | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Browns | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.1 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Browns | 51c | 888.42$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.33 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed 49ers | 52c | 863.42$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.96 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Browns | 53c | 800$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed 49ers | 49c | 750$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.5 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d3…724ebacked 49ers | 49c | 714.29$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Browns | 4c | 697.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cd…9cf5backed 49ers | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Browns | 52c | 440$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.8 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked 49ers | 48c | 417$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.77 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Browns | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed 49ers | 48c | 306$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.1 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Browns | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed 49ers | 49c | 299.85$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.21 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked 49ers | 49c | 206.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.12 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9563…5042backed Browns | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Browns | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed 49ers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed 49ers | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed 49ers | 54c | 186.51$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.79 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…0ba5backed 49ers | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eac…62f1backed 49ers | 50c | 158$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca47…3ef4backed Browns | 52c | 145$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…a74dbacked Browns | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9041…187dbacked 49ers | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Browns | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…c1f1backed Browns | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed 49ers | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked Browns | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked 49ers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed 49ers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed 49ers | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…c16cbacked Browns | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Browns | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed 49ers | 50c | 76.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd225…569fbacked Browns | 51c | 68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Browns | 52c | 59.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Browns | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked 49ers | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4efb…d59dbacked Browns | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f93…6197backed Browns | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Browns | 52c | 47.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0765…1b9ebacked 49ers | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x439d…3e06backed 49ers | 48c | 41.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf581…0892backed 49ers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked Browns | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed 49ers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Browns | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…3293backed 49ers | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…59a4backed 49ers | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…5b9ebacked 49ers | 50c | 31.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked 49ers | 50c | 25.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 49ers (-5.5)this page
- 49ers vs. Browns49ers won
- 49ers vs. Browns: 1H Moneyline49ers won
- 49ers vs. Browns: O/U 34.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Browns: O/U 35.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Browns: O/U 36.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Browns: O/U 39.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Browns: O/U 40.5Under won
- Spread: 49ers (-4.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-6.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.