NBA · resolved market
Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 14.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x618920d76b127fd5ee7178002f4c60b79f487125a59504e93b56d87e77e073cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,895 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 67c | 1,262$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.6 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…ba7bbacked Yes | 34c | 570$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.58 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ef…3792backed Yes | 44c | 560.54$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 31c | 448$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.23 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 66c | 409$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.51 | 207 | 41.1%85 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Yes | 40c | 275.25$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 60c | 265.42$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.17 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 59c | 201$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.72 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…f513backed Yes | 34c | 170.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef4e…a79abacked Yes | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 131 | 38.2%50 W · 81 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 38c | 73.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07f…08d6backed Yes | 39c | 42.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ba18backed Yes | 34c | 39.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 33c | 38.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 61c | 17.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 14.5this page
- 1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)Trail Blazers won
- 1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-5.5)Trail Blazers won
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jarace Walker: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Pacers vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Pacers vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Pacers vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5)Trail Blazers won
- Toumani Camara: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.