NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbde0818c8e65dea7d717a661c94887ba2544dcf3c33b1755ba229e5572dc874e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,641 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers | 41c | 4,893$2,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,006.61 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Trail Blazers | 59c | 4,630$2,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 43c | 2,190$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d5…ed84backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 862$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.34 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers | 57c | 615$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.45 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…94e9backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 599.99$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262 | 227 | 46.3%105 W · 122 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pacers | 44c | 559.28$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.9 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Trail Blazers | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f5…7b42backed Trail Blazers | 59c | 486.64$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.94 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Pacers | 41c | 412.73$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.22 | 207 | 41.1%85 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Pacers | 43c | 328$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.04 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 303.57$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.57 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 300$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.59 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 286.72$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.16 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…e904backed Trail Blazers | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Pacers | 43c | 164$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Pacers | 43c | 159.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Pacers | 44c | 152.27$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 348 | 54%188 W · 160 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 139.52$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 131.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Pacers | 51c | 130$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Pacers | 45c | 113.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…6c27backed Pacers | 44c | 111.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 451 | 51.4%232 W · 219 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Pacers | 45c | 107.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 298 | 44%131 W · 167 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 83.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 77.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Pacers | 43c | 71.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Pacers | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Pacers | 53c | 59.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Pacers | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Pacers | 49c | 49.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 47.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 47.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc9…185bbacked Trail Blazers | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 292 | 47.9%140 W · 152 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…b346backed Trail Blazers | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b8…e7cfbacked Pacers | 47c | 42.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Pacers | 45c | 41.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…b2ebbacked Trail Blazers | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 140 | 49.3%69 W · 71 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Pacers | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Pacers | 44c | 22.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 21.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 19.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)Trail Blazers won
- 1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-5.5)Trail Blazers won
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jarace Walker: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Pacers vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Pacers vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Pacers vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5)Trail Blazers won
- Toumani Camara: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.