NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a5266bb16a73cbbec4a7f2713208838721032191ef08ae550c1238d12a7581a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,792 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Trail Blazers | 60c | 4,860$2,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,936.79 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 51c | 1,981$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…8c4dbacked Pacers | 53c | 1,889$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.92 | 70 | 64.3%45 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Pacers | 51c | 1,779$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.29 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pacers | 51c | 1,086$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.93 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2b…4090backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Trail Blazers | 78c | 575.13$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.63 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pacers | 11c | 476$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 430$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.6 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Trail Blazers | 76c | 328.87$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 432 | 69.2%299 W · 133 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Trail Blazers | 43c | 253.69$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.32 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Trail Blazers | 44c | 231.17$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.96 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Pacers | 49c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Pacers | 52c | 194.03$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Pacers | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb6…8255backed Pacers | 43c | 175.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Pacers | 58c | 147.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Pacers | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 128.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Pacers | 52c | 126.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…5578backed Pacers | 60c | 124.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362a…8683backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 124.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Pacers | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Pacers | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 591 | 40.8%241 W · 350 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…463dbacked Pacers | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 382 | 61.5%235 W · 147 L | +30.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Trail Blazers | 67c | 83.07$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Trail Blazers | 36c | 76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pacers | 52c | 73.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Pacers | 32c | 66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Pacers | 51c | 60.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Pacers | 53c | 52.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…3ef9backed Pacers | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Pacers | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Pacers | 32c | 44.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f9…2458backed Pacers | 57c | 42.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b8…e7cfbacked Pacers | 61c | 32.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 29.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…1f45backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 28.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Trail Blazers | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Pacers | 47c | 21.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…0c83backed Pacers | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 193 | 46.1%89 W · 104 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)Trail Blazers won
- 1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-5.5)Trail Blazers won
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jarace Walker: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Pacers vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Pacers vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Pacers vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5)Trail Blazers won
- Toumani Camara: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.