Music · resolved market
Will Aperture by Harry Styles be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61c1b9e5453f2b568db2b727cfbbd7555a5612c81e78286b1fcc3522b3370c42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 72c | 1,244$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.94 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 6c | 990.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 75c | 580.11$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.3 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x377d…c9d5backed No | 7c | 432.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +209.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 220$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 28c | 199.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 27c | 160.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 23c | 142.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 20c | 109.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 63c | 99.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…1968backed No | 46c | 87.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 30c | 83.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1722backed Yes | 68c | 81.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 28c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 16c | 69.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 27c | 55.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 67c | 55.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 48 | 75%36 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 34c | 32.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…b19dbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…e1e2backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04cc…eacabacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…5ca7backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879a…f3b8backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aperture by Harry Styles be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 7?this page
- Will Choosin’ Texas by Ella Langley be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 7?No won
- Will Man I Need by Olivia Dean be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.