Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x622b62530d3a600e792bb1fe1e7dbb894fc8f8f3d0f3f1b6165ad945106e3a3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 2c | 25,266$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.6 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…13cdbacked No | 78c | 2,041$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.06 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a3…e4b7backed Yes | 22c | 2,004$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 77c | 1,780$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.41 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0170backed Yes | 5c | 1,697$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.87 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 1,213$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.1 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Yes | 23c | 1,045$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…cc75backed No | 79c | 997.24$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.43 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…50c8backed Yes | 22c | 866.55$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e3…47acbacked Yes | 22c | 706.23$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 22c | 601.36$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.3 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce53…834bbacked Yes | 23c | 487.89$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.21 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…7044backed Yes | 23c | 464.46$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…a8febacked No | 78c | 442.79$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…1475backed Yes | 23c | 414.7$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 23c | 414.7$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe784…a80dbacked Yes | 24c | 397.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 22c | 322.18$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 21c | 314.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1c…53f2backed No | 78c | 300.59$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 4c | 288.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 22c | 259.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…6b02backed No | 78c | 235.31$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbe…f9e5backed Yes | 22c | 224.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 22c | 216.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 19c | 214.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0a…e440backed Yes | 23c | 212.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 22c | 195.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…726bbacked Yes | 22c | 192.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d56…046fbacked Yes | 11c | 176.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked No | 77c | 173.98$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Yes | 23c | 156.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 73c | 148.15$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…eac2backed Yes | 27c | 141.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 22c | 128.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Yes | 23c | 124.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac55…610dbacked Yes | 23c | 124.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 78c | 119.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 78c | 119$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed Yes | 23c | 114.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f96…0fa4backed Yes | 23c | 103.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e8…2c0ebacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 77c | 99.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…9339backed Yes | 20c | 99.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…55a6backed Yes | 22c | 86.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 23c | 82.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf829…5ee1backed Yes | 14c | 74.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…2ddfbacked No | 79c | 74.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb135…f5b9backed No | 78c | 73.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +137.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 22c | 64.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…62e3backed No | 78c | 64.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 77c | 63.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked No | 79c | 59.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 29 | 86.2%25 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 78c | 59.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 23c | 49.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 112 | 35.7%40 W · 72 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…3b62backed No | 79c | 49.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d5…3aeabacked No | 78c | 45.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 79c | 29.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 78c | 29.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5a…9809backed No | 79c | 26.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked No | 78c | 20.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 78c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9369…c867backed No | 79c | 14.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-16?Yes won
- Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.