TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,548
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,280

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,548 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xadba…b0afbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10840%0 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c8c…f5e2backed Yes64c756.44$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.12729.6%8 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-27.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes11c479.53$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4326344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes31c300.46$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.58,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a07…923fbacked No77c297.8$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.223164.5%20 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes23c266.75$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8565749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed Yes23c235.73$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4227841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c225.17$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes8c198.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.597,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes36c191.86$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.071,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes34c187$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.244,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes31c182.46$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4539535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff29…f008backed No22c180$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14111950.4%60 W · 59 L+13.9wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+18.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xce5d…5b70backed Yes35c179.41$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.358632.6%28 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No71c161.08$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.332,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No70c154.84$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.91,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No63c153.36$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.084170.7%29 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c153.05$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.037,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes29c148.58$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.499,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No69c148.18$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.671,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes37c143.86$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6739541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb1…7318backed Yes40c141.05$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.891414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No65c138.81$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No59c128.55$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.6934250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes16c122.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.998417.9%15 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No60c116.01$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.665625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No62c113.87$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.819959.6%59 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes20c106.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0351321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5680…7f79backed No57c105.26$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.262962.1%18 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2514637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb938…c094backed Yes42c97.81$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.46728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes16c88.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1711833.1%39 W · 79 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes35c87.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.171,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No66c81.11$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.371,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes30c70.87$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0711644%51 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c66.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes39c64.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2553547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad8a…9d7bbacked No76c64$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.637558.7%44 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd28…ab89backed Yes25c63.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+233.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c52$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.329,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bb0…c1d7backed Yes36c51.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.73850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb26d…039fbacked Yes37c51.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.031540%6 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1681029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2023349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…e7b8backed Yes30c49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.481752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x879e…e339backed No62c48.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6217555.4%97 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes40c48.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3968335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No74c42.43$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.151,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No72c41.75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.663656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…1096backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.12040%8 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68ff…e1b0backed Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes33c39.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9640741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No63c39.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6837533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No75c39.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7145162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90b7…148cbacked Yes38c39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.829331.2%29 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No60c38.2$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2872466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x029a…8039backed Yes37c38.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.062740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c36.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.593,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb2…14d6backed No68c32.91$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.557754.5%42 W · 35 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd371…8f17backed Yes41c32.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.24650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xced6…3f6dbacked No59c32.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.27912.7%10 W · 69 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-72.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes33c31.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.535843.1%25 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ab5…f7d8backed No32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.25767.9%6 W · 70 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No68c30.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.811652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb456…1774backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-76.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.97468.9%51 W · 23 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93b3…dc40backed No70c28.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.564245.2%19 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No70c25.53$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.681,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39da…5318backed Yes42c25.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.686643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe57d…043abacked No60c25.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.088746%40 W · 47 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7517570.3%123 W · 52 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No45c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb34d…e1bdbacked No70c21.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.468164.2%52 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No80c20.93$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.192,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3a9…3003backed No66c20.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.92969%20 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.127771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked No74c19.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1944147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No60c19.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8828954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa608…6c30backed No73c17.56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5b2…9d28backed No70c16.49$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.963100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a5c…e8f2backed No63c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9210736.4%39 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No63c15.75$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7551631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa565…615abacked No72c15.55$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.42857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No70c14.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.51,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.