Bundesliga · resolved market
Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x631ffef69f6e9c0be5ca3384aac4f983d5660ffcd2e2cf4f68b580873b2d8fe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed07…886abacked No | 77c | 10,000$7,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 30c | 6,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 4,620$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.57 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 4,575$3,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.84 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 3,977$3,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.54 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No | 78c | 3,727$2,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.96 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 23c | 2,391$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 75c | 1,679$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.83 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,362$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Yes | 29c | 1,100$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed Yes | 31c | 1,100$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 27c | 694.92$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.93 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…c9aebacked Yes | 22c | 666$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.52 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes | 21c | 620.74$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.35 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 21c | 609.52$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 79c | 599.99$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 23c | 569.56$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.8 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab85…81e6backed No | 79c | 567$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.07 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed No | 79c | 477.61$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.64 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 21c | 471.42$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Yes | 25c | 448$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 21c | 430.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 23c | 420$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed No | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…7511backed Yes | 30c | 333.4$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…1478backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Yes | 30c | 270.47$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcc…e083backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed No | 79c | 180.36$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked Yes | 26c | 152.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 26c | 148.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…a5cebacked Yes | 23c | 139.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…525ebacked Yes | 21c | 128.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Yes | 21c | 119.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 28c | 110.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 29c | 103.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 101.11$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…2f4abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Yes | 19c | 82.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e85…443ebacked No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 78c | 77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Yes | 31c | 74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 22c | 72.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…cc73backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8f…d351backed Yes | 30c | 67.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 79c | 53.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…c35dbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…272dbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…a9b1backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 74c | 47.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 46.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…0badbacked No | 79c | 44.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed No | 77c | 43.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 70c | 38.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…b093backed No | 69c | 36.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 70c | 27.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f80…e222backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec18…8eb4backed No | 78c | 13.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-01-31?Yes won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-01-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.