TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,955
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,561

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,955 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec86…60e4backed Yes48c460.98$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.941,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes44c370.93$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.3917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes48c363.88$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.771,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes60c214.09$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.2610141.6%42 W · 59 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes54c203$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.0370741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes47c184$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.24,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No56c175.72$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.818,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No11c173.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.892,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf839…4407backed No63c154.32$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No28c145.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0376755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes68c143.82$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3725549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes45c133.44$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.1910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No11c132.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.251,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No32c126$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.685,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No40c121.73$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.131,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes49c120.71$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.614,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.940237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No49c111.07$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6534151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes46c107$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.842,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes41c106.25$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.324,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8961…ab1abacked No53c103.74$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7525466.9%170 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2468335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5629953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x851d…a743backed No40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.999552.6%50 W · 45 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c89.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.072,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No43c86.7$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.173,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes43c86.09$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.391,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes60c80.58$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.223,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No54c76.06$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.762,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No57c72.7$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.581,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes55c71.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9345238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes49c70.65$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.032,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No48c69.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5580050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No30c69.87$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.212,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed Yes39c69.41$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5719648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1502…922ebacked Yes50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304269%29 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No22c58.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9129717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No54c58$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.324,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa817…95d7backed Yes55c54.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8416934.9%59 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No37c53.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7299…a763backed No56c51.36$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2923668.2%161 W · 75 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2834934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes63c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6925038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes59c49.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes33c49.78$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.359,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes71c48.85$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3426344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No36c48.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No50c45.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.665965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No54c44.22$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.883,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No57c44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0871464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3df9…2bddbacked No35c43.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1519123.6%45 W · 146 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes42c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0766735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.421339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No46c39.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.22,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes44c37.68$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.15,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes65c37.67$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2699949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c92…7438backed Yes57c36.69$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.69742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No55c36.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.171,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No55c36.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9991861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No57c35.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.452,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes52c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.891,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes71c32.91$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.615,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed Yes42c32.86$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1225560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc857…7c22backed No50c31.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.736262.9%39 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.534,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes45c30.63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7930652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes65c30.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5561249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No44c30.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.291,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes46c30.07$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2414043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.74,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.945,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.13,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.380957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No42c29.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7466141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe256…0408backed Yes56c26.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.793641.7%15 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No54c26.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.425,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9733…f32cbacked No59c25.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked No55c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7572837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7603…2276backed No41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2514674.7%109 W · 37 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No43c23.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1384930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6251…8f7bbacked Yes62c22.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.541030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-46%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes48c22.3$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.623,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2930…3666backed No61c22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.425162.7%32 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05bc…008abacked No50c21.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.889758.8%57 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No51c20.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2530565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes51c20.18$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.814,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed No56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.135168.4%240 W · 111 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.843441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.264960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.335362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0462…8374backed Yes59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-86.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2f…2004backed Yes61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No65c19.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5846667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c4…45c4backed Yes62c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick75cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed Yes60c16.8$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7262275.2%468 W · 154 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.