Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x635ac723a6bb5397f4c95e0ee065a47de9b8b09110b6e2ae420a403c2a53daa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 27c | 1,503$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ee…ad16backed Yes | 2c | 1,022$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 454.15$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 358$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…ebddbacked No | 78c | 313.64$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.83 | 40 | 97.5%39 W · 1 L | +16.9wins | +0.42per pick | 55cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 294.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 257.5$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.62 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 41c | 245.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 32c | 225.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.7 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 21c | 196.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 69c | 167.03$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.72 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 18c | 138.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 72c | 137.34$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 132.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 31c | 132.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 21c | 116.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 80c | 112.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2693…28a3backed No | 55c | 90.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 25c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 71c | 77.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 80c | 75.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 68c | 69.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 68.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 18c | 64.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 37c | 60.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 19c | 59.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 78c | 58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 33c | 57.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 76c | 53.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked Yes | 22c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…fab9backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 45c | 49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 47.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 24c | 43.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 51c | 42.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 42.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 80c | 42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 52c | 38.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 37.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 31c | 37.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 73c | 34.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 33.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 48c | 31.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 26.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 79c | 26.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 79c | 24.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 45c | 24.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 55c | 24.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…e8b9backed Yes | 72c | 23.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 22.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 71c | 21.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…192fbacked Yes | 73c | 21.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0253…bcadbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe30d…2aafbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…0e63backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.