Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86ff9ae849357e6011644d4d83ba1e83d0a0403558d06614be9ae10c165a5ce1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 1,491$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.03 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 615.08$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 40c | 464.79$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.65 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 32c | 400$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.3 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 321$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 19c | 302.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.62 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 288$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.47 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 20c | 282.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.44 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 42c | 216.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.31 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 205.49$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 48c | 162.71$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 160.12$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 48c | 148.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 146.88$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…7bcbbacked Yes | 19c | 146.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.63 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 55c | 139.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…1a72backed Yes | 58c | 136.11$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 136.09$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 33c | 132.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.94 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 127.29$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 49c | 123.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 122.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 121.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 117.76$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 28c | 112.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 69c | 109.97$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 108.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 106.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.29 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 105.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 52c | 104.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 103.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 97.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 91.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 42c | 90.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 89.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 85.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 14c | 82.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 74.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 63.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…9208backed No | 55c | 62.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 52c | 56.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 52c | 53.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 52.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 55c | 51.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 54c | 46.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 32c | 45.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 26c | 44.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 35c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 42c | 42.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 42.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 32c | 40.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 39c | 39.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 55c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 33.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07bb…fccabacked No | 59c | 32.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 51c | 28.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 38c | 27.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 55c | 27.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 27.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 57c | 26.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…3d0fbacked No | 55c | 24.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 67c | 21.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f18…dc6dbacked No | 55c | 20.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e8…637abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.