Earnings · resolved market
Will Roblox (RBLX) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x635e83eacc27eaaa4431a5d7232bb0f1e46be2e3362b0f39a0cd39721e622f3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 34c | 847.99$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.77 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 33c | 738.57$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.57 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 33c | 656.46$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.48 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 67c | 600$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…3895backed No | 36c | 561.87$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.05 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 63c | 527.57$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.2 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…2dcfbacked Yes | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ae…8d09backed Yes | 69c | 438.21$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1d…9cb4backed Yes | 66c | 382.51$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed Yes | 65c | 309.36$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.76 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 36c | 299.96$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 27c | 279.93$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee8b…db0dbacked No | 37c | 189.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde81…c5dbbacked Yes | 68c | 162.77$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 38c | 161.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 36c | 146.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 145.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 34c | 134$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…7f28backed No | 35c | 127.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 105.74$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa95f…18ccbacked Yes | 65c | 105.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1a…7ddebacked Yes | 63c | 89.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 34c | 88.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 64c | 81.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fef…3589backed No | 37c | 79.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda9d…b298backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 63c | 79.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…70f9backed No | 76c | 79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…c5cabacked Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…3302backed Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 34c | 51.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 39c | 50.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17a1…43fdbacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 67c | 49.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…b9bcbacked Yes | 69c | 47.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e87…5b81backed No | 44c | 45.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee7…dc3abacked Yes | 66c | 44.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…f32cbacked Yes | 64c | 43.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa195…24fcbacked No | 36c | 41.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a2…4a38backed Yes | 67c | 37.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961b…4210backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…b141backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…ef14backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…53e3backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1772…3281backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5081backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815b…050cbacked Yes | 65c | 18.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…1e8bbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.