Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-12-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x636d1cc1fffefc38f067a129058d4f7e82ab92d3d4c18379b3020efa3975740f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 51c | 45,000$22,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,050 | 362 | 43.1%156 W · 206 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 49c | 40,332$19,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,762.75 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa757…5720backed No | 50c | 10,063$5,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,031.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f3…e56fbacked Yes | 50c | 10,063$5,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,031.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c06dbacked Yes | 34c | 7,697$2,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,082.07 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 53c | 6,874$3,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,630.75 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 67c | 4,141$2,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,791.82 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 57c | 4,131$2,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,363.79 | 293 | 57.3%168 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 58c | 2,220$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.4 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 37c | 1,998$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.9 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a53…cc07backed Yes | 49c | 1,910$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bb…c8acbacked No | 51c | 1,910$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 47c | 1,344$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.42 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…3070backed Yes | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Yes | 49c | 702.27$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.16 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes | 44c | 700.49$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.32 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 51c | 612.76$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.71 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbd…1bf5backed No | 5c | 387.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 37c | 368.48$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.64 | 192 | 41.7%80 W · 112 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Yes | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +7.7wins | +0.25per pick | 36cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…7b64backed Yes | 30c | 251.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed No | 49c | 240.28$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.74 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f6…d6cebacked Yes | 39c | 235.62$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed No | 49c | 225.9$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4c…5c69backed Yes | 49c | 204.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed No | 51c | 196.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc8…58e2backed Yes | 30c | 193$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 51c | 186.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes | 56c | 179.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 43c | 174.81$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 43c | 172.09$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.09 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993e…8ee9backed Yes | 51c | 160.28$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 327 | 39.4%129 W · 198 L | -22.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 51c | 154$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.46 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 17c | 139.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 37c | 139.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 152 | 26.3%40 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 25c | 137.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 42c | 120.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x857e…e682backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee44…0082backed Yes | 50c | 100.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 27c | 93.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 51c | 89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 396 | 37.1%147 W · 249 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 49c | 88.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 49c | 81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…37fabacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 49c | 71.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…5480backed No | 48c | 70.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b97…3f54backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…8299backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 55c | 54.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 57c | 53.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac1…198bbacked Yes | 40c | 49.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7f…d5bdbacked Yes | 24c | 46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd2…350cbacked No | 49c | 43.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbed…13a9backed Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x078b…35c8backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 206 | 47.6%98 W · 108 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 48c | 30.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…498dbacked Yes | 54c | 27.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b39…7d54backed Yes | 51c | 27.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a83…67eebacked Yes | 57c | 26.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -8.0wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…d660backed No | 72c | 16.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-12-06?this page
- Will Fortuna Sittard vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?No won
- Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2025-12-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.