La Liga · resolved market
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63d8b35b46229860f9144652a0f05da91f349725c4e573ddf3c1f8a371e6c1f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,984 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 2,993$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.64 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 1,968$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.09 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf277…9a5fbacked Under | 73c | 1,370$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 27c | 1,209$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.38 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 42c | 812.45$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.51 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f4…8c1ebacked Under | 55c | 692.8$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.04 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.66 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 25c | 674.4$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.44 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 55c | 599.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…c148backed Under | 10c | 569.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 65 | 12.3%8 W · 57 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 73c | 547.95$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 72c | 474.2$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.62 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 74c | 429.73$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.73 | 128 | 75%96 W · 32 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b7…9cabbacked Over | 26c | 371.12$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 27c | 249.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.49 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…f879backed Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 177 | 31.1%55 W · 122 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed Under | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 21c | 151.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…ab92backed Under | 60c | 140.69$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 27c | 133.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.73 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 56c | 124.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 288 | 47.6%137 W · 151 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Over | 28c | 123.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.74 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x109f…1c5bbacked Under | 74c | 123.72$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…da14backed Under | 74c | 123.7$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…3bc6backed Under | 74c | 123.7$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 188 | 42%79 W · 109 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff8…942fbacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 79.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6250…8707backed Under | 73c | 70.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 73c | 70$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Under | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 28c | 39.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…6191backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…4484backed Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked Under | 44c | 31.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…75abbacked Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…952dbacked Under | 45c | 28.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 56c | 22.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 3.5this page
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. CA Osasuna: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5)CA Osasuna won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.