La Liga · resolved market
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ea15e587a5cd3d0720b08d8beb972a3fecee96854c9fbdca75a08dd077c6e10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 4,694$3,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.39 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 70c | 1,840$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.15 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa566…72debacked Over | 44c | 1,781$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.9 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 24c | 1,365$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 26c | 1,249$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.8 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d3…22d1backed Over | 6c | 1,100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 34c | 624.65$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.89 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Over | 44c | 488.32$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.86 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 27c | 473.8$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 191 | 30.4%58 W · 133 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 71c | 423.94$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.94 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 73c | 358$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.66 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 39c | 356.85$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.17 | 192 | 58.9%113 W · 79 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…4484backed Under | 62c | 316.67$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.37 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 69c | 312.99$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.42 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 42c | 304.76$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 378 | 29.4%111 W · 267 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac14…ad9fbacked Over | 45c | 273.67$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059a…782cbacked Over | 14c | 261.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba7b…b949backed Over | 14c | 261.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 14c | 240.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bce…a18cbacked Under | 73c | 239.85$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 31c | 236.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 616 | 57.8%356 W · 260 L | +42.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5664backed Over | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5e…9733backed Over | 32c | 196.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 30c | 193.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Over | 13c | 186.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 38c | 144.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 70c | 141.45$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a7…e494backed Under | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Over | 14c | 125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Over | 17c | 119.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Over | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +5.9wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…5335backed Under | 75c | 106.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 24c | 101.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 444 | 24.1%107 W · 337 L | -50.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Under | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 177 | 31.1%55 W · 122 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 71c | 77.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 288 | 47.6%137 W · 151 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Over | 29c | 72.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…0019backed Over | 29c | 69.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 37c | 67.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 21c | 66.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 170 | 32.9%56 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 26c | 59.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked Over | 22c | 48.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +9.1wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 71c | 47.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 142 | 59.9%85 W · 57 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 34c | 38.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 61c | 32.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Under | 78c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ca…e89fbacked Under | 74c | 24.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked Under | 66c | 24.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 67c | 24.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 73c | 21.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 411 | 47.9%197 W · 214 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c87…7f4abacked Under | 79c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…8c66backed Under | 74c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. CA Osasuna: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5)CA Osasuna won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.