Ligue 1 · resolved market
Toulouse FC vs. Paris FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x643d8a63a249e9d1c768995c2e1348623e1193214fc6644685569d3b2807352d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 10,238$4,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,194.64 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 55c | 2,728$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3b…4afdbacked Over | 53c | 2,346$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 75c | 2,029$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 71c | 1,488$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.52 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 1,073$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.86 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…a81bbacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 43c | 999.67$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.79 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 66c | 762.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.65 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 29c | 751.45$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.92 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 54c | 662.53$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.18 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 43c | 632.5$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.55 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 31c | 499.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 486.02$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.85 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 484.72$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.69 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 45c | 435.78$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.68 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +203%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 73c | 410.95$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 29c | 401.41$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.41 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 48c | 333.89$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.89 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 57c | 317.28$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.28 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed Over | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 50c | 285.94$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.97 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Under | 9c | 278$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…6c1abacked Over | 49c | 213.33$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b7…37d5backed Over | 43c | 117.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.94 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 61c | 100.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…54d2backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Over | 69c | 95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 39c | 94.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 29c | 86.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1989…2370backed Under | 31c | 79.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 49c | 75.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 54c | 74.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 65c | 73.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 68c | 72.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 58c | 69.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 47c | 66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d4…994cbacked Over | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…29c5backed Over | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 60c | 51.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…891ebacked Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 29c | 40.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0aa…6818backed Over | 69c | 40.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0722…fceebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 55c | 39.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 71c | 39.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…2ff6backed Under | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 68c | 27.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ec…86fbbacked Over | 53c | 26.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Over | 60c | 26.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…a27cbacked Under | 41c | 25.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Under | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2823…eb3dbacked Over | 66c | 21.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c2…6d84backed Over | 69c | 14.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toulouse FC vs. Paris FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Toulouse FC vs. Paris FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toulouse FC vs. Paris FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. Paris FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. Paris FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.