WNBA · resolved market
Fever vs. Mercury
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x644d7c87e9a7490c0239d747ae285c12fbeddf20bb5c3334cc838c5ce70c625d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercuryof Fever, Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Fever | 31c | 7,190$2,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,228.94 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Mercury | 74c | 4,845$3,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 75cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Fever | 26c | 4,052$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.81 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -68%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Mercury | 69c | 3,594$2,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.19 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Fever | 32c | 3,251$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.11 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Mercury | 69c | 3,239$2,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.11 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Fever | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Mercury | 72c | 2,762$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.5 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f8…3a79backed Fever | 23c | 2,598$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +239.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…ad0abacked Fever | 26c | 2,312$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Mercury | 71c | 2,178$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.82 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Mercury | 75c | 1,950$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Fever | 28c | 1,456$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Mercury | 75c | 1,399$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.76 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…ff17backed Mercury | 76c | 1,309$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Fever | 28c | 1,116$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.5 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Fever | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked Fever | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mercury | 69c | 946.2$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.38 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fever | 8c | 907.62$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.71 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…6e04backed Fever | 25c | 900$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Fever | 26c | 837$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.62 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Fever | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mercury | 69c | 761$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.91 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Fever | 14c | 722.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Mercury | 73c | 636.4$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.53 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Fever | 26c | 623.24$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.04 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Fever | 32c | 600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Fever | 29c | 599.98$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mercury | 78c | 568.62$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.28 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Mercury | 69c | 450$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Fever | 15c | 439.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Fever | 31c | 400.01$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Fever | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Fever | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Mercury | 72c | 355.99$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.68 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Fever | 5c | 336.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 62 | 4.8%3 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Fever | 8c | 305.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…6ea1backed Fever | 27c | 259.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68d…9b4abacked Fever | 24c | 235.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Fever | 31c | 214.69$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Fever | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Fever | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…41b3backed Fever | 28c | 180.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Mercury | 72c | 179$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Fever | 16c | 170.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…b6e3backed Mercury | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…76ffbacked Mercury | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Fever | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Mercury | 76c | 118.75$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Fever | 27c | 100.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…85b2backed Mercury | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…47c1backed Fever | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Fever | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Fever | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba4a…713dbacked Fever | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba40…b7b7backed Fever | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e62…4d07backed Mercury | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b58…7273backed Mercury | 77c | 91.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Fever | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Fever | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Fever | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45f1…8994backed Mercury | 74c | 65.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Fever | 31c | 64.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Fever | 25c | 64.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Mercury | 74c | 51.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Mercury | 69c | 50.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Fever | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…09b5backed Mercury | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…adccbacked Mercury | 73c | 41.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Fever | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…6744backed Fever | 32c | 38.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…5c6bbacked Mercury | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…e408backed Fever | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2a…1e5cbacked Mercury | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b6…d3eebacked Mercury | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1319…db4ebacked Mercury | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Mercury | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f587backed Mercury | 76c | 17.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0af0…7aefbacked Mercury | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.