Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x645e9645db7e79ef3be66872c190142ef3fca95126f8521f007a35922b7920ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed No | 72c | 39,523$28,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,069.52 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 28c | 17,697$4,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,956.56 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 28c | 7,244$2,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,021.4 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Yes | 28c | 7,021$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965.9 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 28c | 3,408$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.24 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 28c | 3,362$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.48 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 72c | 1,123$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.46 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Yes | 28c | 522.29$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.24 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 73c | 342$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 16c | 295.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…8027backed Yes | 16c | 279.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 7c | 271.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed No | 42c | 230.03$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.52 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 68c | 197.82$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Yes | 14c | 194$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 28c | 194$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Yes | 29c | 193.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 188.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 29c | 165.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked No | 72c | 164.94$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 77c | 163.35$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 29c | 121.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 39c | 108.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 32c | 100.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 29c | 99.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3e…f880backed Yes | 20c | 96.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 93.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 28c | 92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8562…ad77backed Yes | 56c | 86.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 61c | 80.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 72c | 75.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc809…5f4ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 62c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 29c | 55.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Yes | 28c | 52.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 26c | 47.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 63c | 47.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked No | 72c | 47.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…5780backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 28c | 38.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 37c | 35.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…7c4cbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 20.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 71c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-04-26?Yes won
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-04-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.