MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6482657037be5af9b71bda0005520d23f774d49fad6c6e3b54c0d11f685f6d2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 57c | 10,053$5,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,287.79 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 10,038$4,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,349.86 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 57c | 5,305$3,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,286.19 | 481 | 48.6%234 W · 247 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 44c | 3,804$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.82 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 55c | 2,743$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.55 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 45c | 1,995$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.41 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 43c | 1,846$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.6 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 46c | 1,706$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.77 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 53c | 1,608$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.81 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 43c | 1,408$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.67 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.48 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 46c | 999.97$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.99 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 481 | 45.3%218 W · 263 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…4b55backed Over | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 42c | 500$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 46c | 467$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.82 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 47c | 419.38$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.11 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 43c | 359.34$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.91 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…3e4dbacked Over | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 44c | 329.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.71 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 300$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 43c | 220$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 57c | 209$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.78 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 202.97$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 130.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 37c | 130.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb602…1ab1backed Over | 58c | 129.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 18c | 124.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 58c | 118$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 48c | 110.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 63c | 102$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 451 | 49.2%222 W · 229 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…e1cbbacked Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 46c | 99.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 54c | 95.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 53c | 92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 53c | 70.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 44c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…042ebacked Over | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Over | 54c | 56.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 54c | 55.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7f…cc9bbacked Under | 43c | 50.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 46c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…18c6backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 43c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 36c | 41.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 41.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 58c | 39.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…2c66backed Over | 58c | 36.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…9b6dbacked Under | 43c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 46c | 34.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0243…b5a5backed Under | 46c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 51c | 33.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 58c | 30.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Under | 46c | 29.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 926 | 45.9%425 W · 501 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 383 | 42%161 W · 222 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Over | 78c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.