MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6116df7f0ecb9578b8a93db7ad660b740bc2bfec7e969e5f8032ef13c0b17063
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 18,520$11,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,482.4 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 16,716$6,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,363.92 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 12,882$5,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,265.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 6,289$3,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,330.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 4,234$2,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,469.29 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859.88 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 2,521$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.68 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 886.28$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.49 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 634.06$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.84 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 565.36$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.91 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 550$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 444.09$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.33 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 429.01$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.99 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 269.73$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.97 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 246.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9811…5326backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 237.06$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 73c | 235.73$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 235$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.95 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 232$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 206.72$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.94 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…3e4dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 129$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 124$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 123.71$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 102.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 99.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 74.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 59.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 57.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 50.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 25c | 49.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 49.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 44.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 43.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 42.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 35.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 34.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 27.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 22.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad6…eed6backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 18.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 15.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.